Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend and a dry stretch of weather through Wednesday, featuring temperatures in the 70s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) return Thursday evening into Friday. Low to medium confidence in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall. There are still remaining uncertainties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Upper air analysis shows the area in northwesterly flow aloft as an upper level ridge continues to build over the Plains. A weak upper level shortwave is making its way south of the area, with a surface frontal boundary east of the CWA over the MO/IL border. Both water vapor imagery and the 00Z KSGF sounding continue to showcase a dry airmass in place, with nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing mid to high level clouds filtering through the area overnight as a result of the shortwave.

For today and Wednesday, expect warm and dry conditions to continue, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. Southwesterly surface winds will gust up to 30mph today, primarily for areas north of I-44 and west of Hwy 65, before tapering off overnight tonight. The windy conditions will be a daily occurrence however, with gusts up to 20-25mph on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

We can expect a pattern shift beginning on Thursday, as an upper level trough pushes through the western CONUS Wednesday, bringing southwesterly flow aloft and upper level energy to the region by Thursday. A surface cold front is progged to push through the area, bringing rain chances (40-70%) Thursday evening, increasing overnight and into Friday morning (70-90%). SPC continues to highlight the potential for severe thunderstorms over a large portion of the area, with the Day 3 outlook placing this area in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5), with a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) extending to our west/northwest and just clipping Bourbon county.

Friday will also bring the potential for severe thunderstorms, however there remains uncertainty, as the specifics will depend on the fronts location and how progressive it pushes through. If it can remain over the area, then additional rain and thunderstorm chances will continue, with SPC highlighting areas south of Highway 60 having the continued potential for severe weather. However, if the front pushes further south, then rain/thunderstorm chances would be lower.

Several spokes of upper level energy will continue circulating around the upper level low and pushing through the region this weekend and into the beginning of next week. As a result, there exists daily chances of rain, with Sunday night into Monday morning showing increased chances (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms. The latest NBM run shows a 55-65% probability of the area seeing at least 1.0 inch of rainfall between Thursday and Sunday. With the recent excessive rainfall the Ozarks experienced over this past week, we'll need to monitor for any flooding potential through this weekend. WPC has highlighted a large portion of our forecast area in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Friday to account for this potential.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with scattered mid to high level clouds filtering into the area. Southerly surface winds between 5-10kts overnight will become south-southwesterly by the morning, increasing to 10-15kts and gusting up to 20-25kts.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.