Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorm watch in effect from now until 9 PM for most of the area. Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be the primary hazards, with a secondary risk of tornadoes.

- Additional thunderstorm chances on Saturday and Sunday will pose a risk for flash flooding due to recent heavy rainfall, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils. An associated severe weather risk may also develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Severe weather is expected later this afternoon and evening due to an incoming cold front. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect from now until 9 PM. The 18z SGF sounding shows an abundant CAPE profile with values near 3000-4000 J/kg. We won't have any issues with moisture with dewpoints in the 70s across the area. The main factor in today's set up will be the shear magnitude. The best shear will be located behind the cold front which may change the severity of the storms depending on how quickly the front moves. Wind shear is in the mid 20 kts near Springfield and the mid 30 kts near Bourbon, Vernon, and St. Clair counties. SPC has expanded the tornado risk this afternoon to include most areas along and north of I-44. This is due to the possibility of supercells maintaining themselves all the way to SE KS/W MO. Though, if upscale growth occurs too quickly, then these supercells will merge into a line of storms further north than anticipated. The biggest unknown is where exactly these supercells merge into a line, which is dependent on wind shear and storm motion. Again, this is why SPC has expanded the tornado threat incase the supercells maintain themselves all the way to SE KS/W MO. If supercells do make it to our CWA, we can expect golf ball sized hail and 60-70 mph winds and a brief tornado risk. Once the cells merge into a line, the main hazard will be wind as it pushes southeast through the state.

Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints sitting in the 70s making it feel warm and muggy. A few clouds have stuck around most of the day but haven't kept our temperatures any cooler. Southwesterly winds have been gusty today near 30 mph due to the surface low pressure system pushing east through the Plains. Lows tonight will feel a bit cooler with the CAA moving through. Temperatures will be in the 60s with dewpoints in the 50s and clouds gradually clearing through the night with light northeasterly winds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure moves in for a moment on Friday bringing dry weather with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Then, another chance for rain returns this weekend with a brief cool down for the start of next week. Once we get to Sunday, we'll get to experience highs in the 70s through mid-week.

This weekend will feature a flash flooding threat especially from Saturday night into Sunday when the highest rainfall amounts are expected to fall. A warm front will lift over the area for the weekend and create a warm and moist environment. We'll also have a couple of shortwaves move through and help to initiate some showers and thunderstorms. Exact timing for these storms isn't nailed down yet and chances for rain are high on Saturday at 70-90%. A Flood Watch is looking more likely at this time with the bulk of the rainfall falling over SE KS/W MO where we've already received quite a bit of rainfall. Rivers are elevated and soils are saturated. WPC has a 25% chance for excessive rainfall over that area and they could see up to 5 inches of rain over the span of 24-36 hrs. Please see the hydrology section for more detailed information regarding rain rates and river levels.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Conditions across the region will see short term changes from VFR to MVFR and IFR as a cold front will move through the region this evening. Showers and storms, some severe, will move across the region and may impact area terminals through 10pm local. Where showers and storms move across airfields, ceilings and visibilities will drop to MVFR. Otherwise, expect VFR flight conditions.

Surface winds shift from southerly to northerly after frontal passage with winds higher in storms, else, winds will be from 5 to 15mph with occasional gusts.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Many areas across western Missouri and southeast Kansas have received over 2" of rainfall and localized areas received over 6" of rain in the past 7 days. This rainfall has helped lead to saturated soils across portions of the region. FFG ranges from 1.5"-2.5" (hourly) to 2"-3" (3 hourly) across much of the area. Streamflows are currently running above normal to much above normal especially across southeast KS and western MO. With the heaviest rains still a few days out current river forecasts won't be reflecting the expected rainfall this weekend until we get closer to the event. However, longer range HEFS models are showing the potential for some river locations to go back into Action and Flood stage particularly across our western counties and southeast Kansas. With recent heavy rains and saturated soils if additional expected rainfall amounts materialize, flash flooding and river flooding may develop this weekend. Keep updated with the latest river forecasts as we approach this event.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.