Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A breezy day is in store with temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. Similar conditions on Friday with highs 10 degrees warmer than today.

- Late Friday into Saturday, there are rain and thunderstorm chances (30%-80%) across northern Wyoming. Temperatures east of the Divide are forecast to peak in the 60s with cloudy skies. West of the Continental Divide, expect warm, dry, and breezy weather this weekend.

- Warm, above normal temperatures are looking more favorable next Monday through Thursday, with little to no rain or thunderstorm chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 1116 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A pleasant day is in store for much of Wyoming as a surface high builds into the Intermountain West. Despite high pressure at the surface, the breezy winds mentioned in the morning discussion are still expected this afternoon thanks to 60kt to 80 kt upper level winds and some vorticity aloft. Precipitation chances across the higher terrain are are very low (<5%) for this afternoon given the dry atmosphere across Wyoming. Temperatures this afternoon will have no issue warming into 60s and mid 70s across the area thanks to mostly sunny skies and 700mb temperatures in the 1C to 6C range. Flow aloft becomes zonal late tonight and Friday with weak height rises aloft. These height rises combined with 700mb temperatures between 5C and 12C will give way to temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s for Friday. Given the breezy winds and low relative humidity values in the 9 to 20 percent range, elevated fire weather conditions exist both afternoons across central and southern Wyoming.

Model guidance has begun hinting at a shortwave and associated cold front dropping into northern Wyoming Friday evening. There will be an uptick of available moisture along and behind the cold front with mean PWATs ranging from 0.5" to 0.75" east of the Continental Divide Friday evening and overnight. This uptick in moisture, increased lift with the cold front, and support aloft brings rain shower and high elevation snow potential to northern Wyoming late Friday through Saturday morning. There is some uncertainty in how far south the rain chances extend into central Wyoming. It currently looks as if available moisture will be blocked by the Owl Creeks and Bridger Mountains and remain north of the range. As of Thursday afternoon, the greatest precipitation chances (30%-80%) for Friday night into Saturday morning exist across the Absaroka Mountains, the Bighorn Mountains, and Johnson County.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

IR shows cooling cloud tops pushing out of Montana over northern portions of the CWA associated with the main upper level trough starting to exit the upper Rockies to the east. The main finger of the PFJ pushes cyclonically around the aforementioned disturbance diving south out of eastern Montana progressing more progressive eastward into the High and Great Plains. It is weakening with its eastward moving due to decreasing divergence aloft. Lingering shower activity on the backside of this system that has affected the area the past few days stretches over the northern Bighorn Basin to the Bighorns. Mainly in the form of rain for lower elevations but some light snow possible for the northern Bighorns through sunrise Thursday morning with minor accumulations for the higher terrain with no impact to the mountain passes heading east into the higher plains of the state.

Northwest flow sets in place Thursday stretching from an upper level ridge southwest of California building with increasing convergence aloft keeping a tight gradient in the upper levels. As such, daily afternoon/evening shower activity possible through Saturday with daytime heating. Progressive in movement, this shower activity will be limited in coverage and shortened in time frame with little impacts constrained mainly to higher elevations along and northeast of the Winds. Coverage and confidence remain low for these daily occurrences around 10-20%. With the aforementioned system pushing east, weaker surface convergence and gradient will be instilled across the CWA with only breezy winds expected. The gradient will be cut nearly in half around 3-4mb throughout the CWA giving way to mainly westerlies up to 20-30 mph east of the Divide and 10-20 mph to the west from late morning to early evening due to daytime heating and mixing to the surface. Improved skies Thursday onward, clear at night and some passing clouds in the afternoon and evening, but otherwise, a more calm weather pattern going forward.

The upper level flow weakens even more come Sunday and into much of next week with very minimal if any at all shower activity diurnally. Nothing of note looks to be on the horizon until later in the work week and following weekend as longer term model solutions are pretty consistent with another deep low/trough pushing in from the Pacific northwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 501 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with mostly clear skies and no precipitation impacts. KCPR will continue to see a gusty west to northwest wind through the day before decreasing around sunset. Then, KRIW will again see a down-drainage wind that will last through the night. Mainly light wind expected Friday morning before another increase for the afternoon; most terminals will see gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.