Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storm potential this afternoon/evening across the far southeast Plains.

- Warmer and breezy today, with continued critical and near critical fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain.

- Trending cooler and unsettled for the late weekend into early next week before a warming trend midweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 818 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A quick update to the forecast to cancel Severe Watch 323 across the southeast plains, as well as to expire the Red Flag Warning across portions of south central and southeast Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 233 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A stubborn upper level trough continues to linger over the northern plains. Shortwave disturbances are rippling down from this flow. These disturbances are causing an increase in westerly flow aloft leading to critical fire weather conditions due to dry and windy conditions for the mountains and the foothills near the I-25 corridor. At the same time, a stationary front is meandering into the forecast area along the CO/NM boarder. Dew points along this front will cause dryline to develop in the SE corner of the state this evening. Ample moisture and upper level shear will allow any thermal updrafts to reach into upper level instability of about 750- 1250j/kg of CAPE over the eastern plains. Storms have the potential to form in the Raton Mesas before veering towards the corner of Baca, Bent, Prowers county. Threats for any storms that do form will be damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph, large hail up to 1.5 inches. The latest convective allowing models also support the very slight probability of tornadoes with increasing Helicity along the southeastern boarder with OK and KS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 233 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Tomorrow, temperatures will be ever so slightly cooler in the mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. A plume of fairly moist air with dew points in the 40s will enter the area from the north tomorrow. This air could help initiate thunderstorm development for the terrain on the Rampart and Wet mtns with the potential for development on the Sangre de Cristo and Mosquito mtns as well. Late Saturday afternoon, a shortwave disturbance will infiltrate the region causing a strong cool down through Sunday and Monday. Increased chances for showers exists Sunday as moist air fills into the region creating above average PWAT values for the entire region. A warming trend sets in midweek as temperatures rebound back into above normal. Wednesday even has the potential to reach into the 90s for the foothills and even possibly the 100s farther east and in the lower Arkansas Valley.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS, though lowering/thickening clouds and shower probability increase starting between 00z and 02z Saturday eve.

A weak northerly surge expected across the eastern plains overnight, affecting KCOS and KPUB, then a stronger cold front is forecast to push south across the Palmer Divide by midday Saturday. This will produce wind gusts in the 20-25 kt range across all of the eastern plains beginning between 14-16z. Mentioned PROB30 for showers at KCOS and KPUB starting in the 02z-04z time frame. For KALS, easterly surface winds due to front pushing across La Veta Pass will reach the terminal between 02z and 04z, with gusts to 25 kts probably late Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain today for many zones due to strong winds with gusts over 30mph and relative humidities as low as the single digits. Red Flag warnings were added to COZ229 and 230 due to increased confidence in gap winds for 229 and the potential for dry lightning and gusty outflow winds down in zone 230 as storms pass to the east of the zone.

Tomorrow shows a decreased area of critical fire weather as strong northerly winds push into the region carrying fairly moist air over the eastern portions of the forecast area. Pueblo County seems to be in the perfect mix of receiving many of these strong winds yet still remaining in critical RH values during the daytime hours. The Upper Arkansas Valley will also experience critical weather as gap and foehn winds cause Red Flag conditions for zone COZ220.

A cold front passing Sunday will decrease the fire weather risk early next week yet more critical conditions are forecasted to return mid next week as a strong warming trend takes effect.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220- 228.