Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical and near critical fire weather conditions continue today through Saturday.

- Slight cooling Saturday before a cold front arrive Sunday cooling temps further with increased rain chances.

- Warmer and drier for the middle to end of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 812 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Updated forecast to let the rest of today's Red Flag Warning expire.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Observational data continues to indicate very dry air and strong winds across the region, with marginal critical fire weather conditions across much of south central Colorado. Strong westerlies are forecasted to weaken through the afternoon. Further east, gusty northerly winds are weakening to 20-25mph with very dry air still in place. Despite the cooler temperatures today, around seasonal levels, dry air will keep RH values below the critical threshold with Red Flag Warnings in place. In the mountains, strong winds remain with a few clouds forming over the Sangre de Cristos and San Juans. However, the atmosphere looks too dry to form any storms today for these regions with PWAT values between 0.2-0.5" which is slightly below the average. Tonight, SSW winds form in the plains keeping the air well mixed. No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Friday will feature at and above seasonal temperatures once again, with increasing westerly flow ahead of more short wave energy digging across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies Friday night. Dry conditions remain in place across the western half of the area, leading to more critical fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain, where a Red Flag Warning is hoisted from late Friday morning into the evening. There remains a slow increase in available moisture across the plains as the dry line begins to enter back into the forecast area from the SE. Model Ensembles show between 500-1000j/kg of CAPE Friday afternoon, with enough potential instability for a few possible afternoon showers and storms across the southeast mtns, the southern I-25 Corridor and into the far southeast plains. CAMS (HRRR/NAMNest) also support this claim as they show storms forming between 2-3PM and lasting until 10PM for the farthest eastern locations. DCAPE values look fairly strong with 750-1250j/kg which could lead to the potential of severe winds. The hail threat will depend more directly on the strength of the updrafts. The freezing level remains relatively low around 3800m which could lead to a storm or two producing impactful hail if the certain conditions line up just well enough.

Latest model data is trending slightly cooler for Saturday with temps in the mid 80s to low 90s for the plains. A front arriving Sunday will dramatically decrease daytime highs and lead to a day without critical fire weather. Forecast confidence on wetting rains (>0.10") for the area are around 50-70% for the mountains and between 30-40% for the eastern plains. Models show upper level ridging builds across the Rockies, bringing warm and drier weather back to region for the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

KCOS - E-SE surface winds through the evening, lessening by 03z. S to SW wind flow redeveloping tomorrow afternoon.

KPUB - E surface flow through the evening, becoming southerly tomorrow afternoon.

KALS - E surface winds expected to push in around 02z this evening, then become light overnight. SW winds redeveloping by tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A cold front passed over the area last night ushering in gusty, dry winds to the area. Northerlies and easterlies continue to dominate with gusts of 25-35mph bring recorded this UBCLSPUB 000 TTAA00 Pafternoon with RHs remaining critical. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through the evening for eastern CO and the I-25 & US-50 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch for Friday has been upgraded for many zones to a Red Flag Warning due to continued high winds and low daytime RH values. Fire Weather Zones 230/229 were downgraded due to high forecast confidence on slightly higher RH values.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for zones 220/222/228. Forecast confidence has increased to moderate in regards to terrain enhanced winds. The watch remains due to slight forecast uncertainty on coverage of ambient atmospheric moisture. A dryline is forecasted to form over the eastern plains and could ebb its way toward zones 222/228 which would increase RH values out of the critical threshold.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ220- 222>224. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ220-222-228.