Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures return today and continue through the weekend.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions on Friday and Saturday due to low RHs and breezy winds.

- Generally dry conditions to end the week and for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

We begin our warming trend today as yesterday's shortwave trough moves farther east and we get into more northwesterly flow aloft. Highs this afternoon warm into the 70s for most under clear skies. Winds are quite a bit lighter today, too, with afternoon gusts only to about 20 or 25 mph out across the desert. It will still be chilly tonight with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s. There will be a few pockets out there where temperatures fall to near the mid 30s, but it's only about a 30 to 50 percent chance for parts of the upper Snake River Plain to drop to at least 36 degrees or colder, so will not issue any Frost Advisory tonight. While it wouldn't be a surprise to see a couple of 36s early Friday morning, many will stay warmer than that.

Dry conditions are back today, too, and it doesn't look like we have any real rain/storm chances on the horizon for at least several days. We may see a couple of isolated showers or storms try to get going off of the terrain on Saturday and Sunday afternoons in the Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands, but it looks like about a 10 percent chance or less at this time. This will be due to a trough dropping southward out of Canada and into central Montana for the weekend, bringing a little bit of troughing into northern and eastern Idaho, too. This will help keep temperatures from warming up too much and highs are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Breezy conditions return for Friday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. This in conjunction with min RHs in the teens and low 20s will lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions across a good portion of our area, especially in the eastern Magic Valley, lower Snake River Plain, and South Hills.

High pressure begins to build in over the West early next week and will help warm temperatures back into the mid and upper 80s for most of next week with breezy, dry conditions each afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 413 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Clear skies with light winds are likely through the night. Will probably see some gusts up towards 20kts in the afternoon at most taf sites tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Look for drying and warming trends along with breezy conditions today through the weekend. Temperatures will rise back to the 70s and 80s for daytime highs. Min RHs will drop back below 25% for mountain areas and below 15% for the Snake Plain, Eastern Magic Valley and our southwest areas (fire weather zones 410, 425, 427, and portions of 413). Friday and Saturday afternoon winds combined with low relative humidity, higher temperatures, and near critical fuels will bring some renewed at least low-end fire weather concerns to parts of Fire Weather zones 410, 425 and 427. Friday will be the windiest and Fire Weather zone 425 currently has both critical winds and critical relative humidity. Holding off on issuing a RED FLAG WARNING for now since fuels are "approaching critical," but there may be updates or changes if we hear any new information from fire partners.

PIH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.