Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1059 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Severe thunderstorm risk through the weekend. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

- Hot & muggy conditions expected again Saturday, with heat indices near and above 100-105 degrees in the afternoon and evening. - Active pattern continues through the weekend, with additional chances for rain and storms. Locally heavy rain/flooding possible.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Scattered showers/storms will continue to develop in parts of southern OK and western north TX this afternoon as an outflow boundary continues to move west and northwest across the area. Additional development of a few storms will also be possible along the outflow boundary further north into parts of central/northern OK although this is a low chance. Some of these storms may become strong/severe with strong winds and hail. This activity is expected to end this evening.

There is a higher chance for additional showers/storms across northern OK tonight into early Saturday. Models show storms developing in the High Plains this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to develop into a complex that moves east across SW KS and the Panhandles eventually moving into OK where it continues to move eastward. There are a few models that keep the complex north of the fa in S KS so there is some uncertainty with the southern extent. This complex will have the potential for severe storms with damaging winds the main concern although hail is a secondary concern.

Humid conditions will return today as the moist airmass that got shifted southward yesterday continues to spread back to the north with 60s/70s dewpoints returning to much/all of the fa by evening. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be a bit cooler than the last few days with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. However, with the humid conditions it will likely feel like there isn't too much of a difference. Temperatures tonight will be warm with lows in the low/mid 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Some lingering showers/storms from the storm complex may still be ongoing in parts of northern OK Saturday morning before ending/moving out but for the most part much of the fa will likely remain dry through much of the daylight hours. Rain chances will begin late Saturday afternoon and increase Saturday night into Sunday with the highest chances shifting southward during that time. Models show another cold front moving into NW OK late afternoon/early evening. This front is expected to continue to move southward Saturday night into Sunday pushing into central TX by Sunday evening. Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday and Sunday. Sunday's severe potential will be somewhat dependent on how things evolve Saturday night into Sunday morning and for our fa would likely be confined to parts of far southern OK and western north TX where as the risk on Saturday is over a greater portion of the fa. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns both days. Locally heavy rain/flooding will also be a concern this weekend.

Another hot and humid day is expected Saturday with highs back into the 90s and low 100s. Triple digit heat index values will be possible across much of the fa with heat indices at or above 105 possible in some locations with the most likely area right now looking to be in parts of northern and central OK. There are some elements that could however mitigate these higher heat indices which leads to some uncertainty. The uncertainty stems from whether there will be any lingering effects from the thunderstorm complex that is expected to move through tonight. Potential factors would be any lingering cloud cover, outflow boundary, and/or showers/storms lasting longer than currently expected. With the uncertainty, will hold off on issuing a heat advisory but if it looks like these things will not be a factor then a heat advisory would probably be needed for at least parts of the fa tomorrow.

The good news is some relief is expected to be on the way. Cooler air is expected to move into the region behind the front which will lead to highs (mid 70s to low 80s) on Sunday that are about 15 to 25 degrees cooler than on Saturday. Lows Sunday night will also be much cooler with temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 50s in northern OK to the mid 60s in south central OK.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

As the cooler and drier air overspreads the area, after a chance of some lingering showers across the south early, expect mainly dry and cool conditions by Monday afternoon. Highs will only climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

South winds return Tuesday as we start a warm up into the middle of the upcoming week. Windy and hot conditions expected by Wednesday as daytime highs return to the upper 90s and lower 100s along and northwest of I-44. These conditions may linger through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A complex of thunderstorms will move into northwest Oklahoma tonight. The complex of thunderstorms should weaken with southeast extent. Strong to severe winds gusts and reduced visibilities are possible with the thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, light south to southeast winds are expected tonight. These winds will become gusty during the day tomorrow before weakening in the evening. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop tomorrow evening across northern into northwest Oklahoma.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.