Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Scattered rain and very low (non-severe) storm potential continues across southern Oklahoma and north Texas from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

- Multi-hazard risk potential on Thursday; Severe weather possible east of a dryline, fire weather concern across portions of western Oklahoma.

- Unsettled weather pattern continues on Friday into the weekend; Multiple opportunities for strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Rain chances will continue across southern portions of the area today, though overall impact should remain limited. Early morning satellite captures an upper impulse gliding eastward across portions of central Texas. Weak isentropic ascent will help to foster increasing coverage of scattered precipitation cores throughout the morning into afternoon, primarily near and south of the Red River. The main risks with this activity will be occasional lightning strikes, with nil chance for strong-to-severe storm activity.

By and large, new rainfall totals should remain on the lighter side (~0.25" or less) today, though localized pockets nearing 0.5" will be possible where repeated "heavier" cores move overhead.

Otherwise, cooler conditions are expected across much of central/southern Oklahoma and north Texas, with low clouds (and perhaps intermittent drizzle) lingering for much of the day. More seasonable conditions (mid to upper-70s) will occur on the periphery of the cloud deck from near the 100th meridian into far northern Oklahoma.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The sluggish upper impulse across northern Texas will continue to foster limited (20-40%) coverage of rain showers across portions of southern and eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. While cloud cover is forecast to slowly thin into the afternoon on Wednesday, there is potential that daytime highs may again run on the cool side. We have lowered high temperatures slightly (into the low to mid-70s) across central and eastern Oklahoma, and some individual CAM members hint that an even cooler day is possible across these areas.

A sharpening dryline beneath subtle forcing from an approaching upper wave may foster widely scattered convection across the combined panhandles on Wednesday evening. If this occurs, there is very low (20%) potential for a weakening thunderstorm or two to meander across the 100th meridian, posing some risk for strong winds. However, the favored forecast at present highlights a storm-free evening and night across the forecast area.

A broad belt of enhanced west-southwesterly flow, comprised of at least one prominent shortwave trough, will move eastward across the central CONUS on Thursday. As a dryline mixes and sharpens across western extents of the area, potential exists for an afternoon and evening of multi-hazard risk.

Hot temperatures, low humidity and gusty southwesterly winds behind the dryline will promote potential for near-critical fire weather conditions. Of particular concern is the area north/west of a Waynoka-Cheyenne line, where recent reconnaissance from forestry partners indicate fire fuels remain dormant (i.e., most problematic for fire starts).

To the east of the dryline, some risk for severe thunderstorms will exist. However, as is common with drylines being overspread by weak synoptic forcing amidst pronounced mid-level warming, predictability on overall storm coverage is limited. Still, have opted to carry very low (~20%) storm mentions in vicinity of the dryline Thursday evening. Better chances for storms look to arrive after sunset across northern and northeastern Oklahoma, when severe weather will remain in play.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A generally unsettled weather pattern looks to persist on Friday and into the upcoming weekend. While confidence is high in continued (modest) west-southwesterly flow across the southwestern CONUS, timing/strength/track of individual storm systems remains generally uncertain.

On Friday, a weak frontal boundary looks to meander east- southeastward across Oklahoma throughout the day. Renewed concern for rain and thunderstorms is currently anticipated, mainly east of the I-35 corridor, into the afternoon and evening hours. Progged instability and wind shear would favor potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms across this area.

Periods of thunderstorms remain possible into the weekend, in particular on Sunday, when guidance is beginning to hone in on a more impactful upper wave passage across the region. While severe weather certainly remains possible (esp. Sunday), exact details on areas/timing/hazards will be heavily dependent on evolution of both surface and upper air features from prior days. Make sure to check back as a more unified picture comes into focus!

Ungar

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will gradually build in from the southwest through the TAF period. With this, south central Oklahoma and north Texas may see some scattered light showers and/or drizzle during the early morning to early afternoon hours. Winds will remain out of the south.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.