Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer Thursday with a low potential for an elevated risk of fire spread in the afternoon for northern most interior sections.

2) A frontal system will provide a chance of rain over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1... With winds more offshore and out of the NW on Thursday, look for warmer temperatures. Downsloping winds will result in adiabatic compression and should aid in temperatures getting above normal during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a good degree of mixing by early afternoon, give or take a few hours from west to east across the region. Therefore max temperatures should average about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Locations across the W and NW interior will be warmest compared to the remainder of the region. NW winds should gust to 25 mph, with peak gusts to around 30 mph with no impacts anticipated. Due to the recent rain and winds expected to be light until the late Thursday morning the window for fire spread conditions appears rather tight, with it taking another day or so to completely dry and get fuels up. Thus, after coordinating with surrounding offices and state partner have chosen not to go with a statement at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A warm front will approach from the W on Sat. It is unlikely to reach the area per the 12Z model consensus, but there will be WAA aloft resulting in mid lvl frogen across the region. With a conditionally unstable airmass, this will help with vertical development across the area. Deep omega indicated in the timeheights reflecting this. As a result, a period of rain with possibly an embedded elevated tstm is possible over the weekend. Timing is still a bit uncertain, but the focus right now appears Sat aftn and eve for the best chances.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A warm front, with a wave of low pressure passing along it, nears the area this afternoon. It then sags south of the area this evening into tonight, remaining south of the area into tomorrow.

MVFR conditions remain possible this afternoon in lower ceilings, though confidence is low in how long it may persist. At some sites, MVFR may end up being occasional or brief. Most sites improve this evening into early tonight, but some eastern terminals (mainly KISP/KGON) may stay socked in with even the chance for IFR conditions until daybreak. There is also a possibility for this at KBDR and KHPN, but more uncertainty surrounding this. All sites are VFR after daybreak tomorrow.

Gusts are now diminishing and the winds will soon shift to the E then NE as the low passes south of Long Island, late this afternoon and early evening. There is some uncertainty with wind direction due to where exactly the low tracks, but winds are expected to be light, around 5 kt or less overnight. NW winds increase again tomorrow 10- 14 kt with gusts 19-23 kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

While this system has trended quicker, leaving the city terminals VFR late tonight, there is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the chance of MVFR/IFR development tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers with MVFR cond in the afternoon and at night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers.

Sunday: MVFR possible mainly in the morning with slight chance of showers. Low confidence.

Monday: MVFR possible mainly in the evening and overnight with slight chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Other than marginal small craft conditions for the far eastern ocean through early this evening, sub advisory conditions will prevail across all waters into Thursday. Although, brief small craft conditions could take place briefly for the western near shore waters Thursday afternoon. Otherwise expect sub advisory conditions to prevail through Friday night and likely through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.