Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The next potential window for strong to severe thunderstorms will be Sunday late afternoon and evening.

2) Minor coastal flooding chances this weekend and into early next week (Sun-Mon) for the evening high tides.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1... For Sunday, a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes region will extend a pair of shortwave troughs toward the East Coast. The first shortwave will support the development of a low pressure system along the coast, which will give the area its next round of shower and storm activity. The second shortwave will support a surface cold front on Sunday night that will end the storm threat. The environment ahead of these features will be more marginal than the last several days as temperatures will only just get to 90 degrees and surface dew points will only reach the mid 60s, so the instability will be limited. However, this setup could allow for more upper level support to organize storms. SPC has the western portion of the area in a slight risk and the eastern half in a marginal risk of severe storms, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.

.KEY MESSAGE 2... Another round of high tide flooding is expected across coastal Fairfield CT and the south shore back bays of Nassau NY this evening. The combination of a new moon plus surge/anomaly near a foot will once again produce water levels at or just above minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening/nighttime high tide cycle.

With an increasing onshore flow Sunday and tide levels coming up another tenth or two, a more widespread minor coastal flood event is possible Sunday night and coastal flood advisories may be needed.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High pressure builds in from the west through this morning. A thermal trough sets up across the area this afternoon.

VFR.

NW winds less than 10kt overnight into the morning, gradually backing SW at coastal sites into the afternoon. Speeds around 10 kt, with a few gusts 15-18 kt possible at a few sites Saturday afternoon. Seabreeze forecast at KJFK. Light SW winds Saturday night.

There is some uncertainty due to mixing and the development of a thermal trough in the afternoon on how quickly winds back around at the coastal terminals.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

A few gusts up to 15-18 kt possible in the afternoon.

Timing of winds backing to the SW-S at KJFK could vary by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening with MVFR or lower possible at times. S-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Generally light flow from the NW less than 15 kts is expected through tonight with sub-SCA conditions expected for all waters.

There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday into Sunday night with increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front. This will likely be marginal and mainly for the ocean waters, with 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft seas.

Any near SCA conditions fall below criteria on Sunday night and sub-SCA conditions persist through at least the middle of the week.

Rip Currents...

The rip current risk overall will be low today with a west to northwest wind generally up to 10 kt and a lingering 2 ft southerly swell. By Sunday, the rip current risk climbs to moderate for the Suffolk beaches, with a high risk developing during the afternoon for the NYC and Nassau beaches, mainly due to an increasing S wind up to around 15 kt. A high risk may develop very late in the day for the Suffolk beaches as well.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 13: KEWR: 74/2005 KBDR: 71/2017 KNYC: 77/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 72/2017 KISP: 70/1969

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.