Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Severe thunderstorm risk this evening into the overnight hours with all hazards possible. Risk levels range from level 1 out of 5 along the Plateau to 3 out of 5 for northwest Middle TN. A few storms may occur as early as this afternoon for areas west of I-65.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. The main risks are damaging winds and large hail. The tornado risk is low.

- Good drought relief rainfall expected with 2 to 3 inches for much of the area through midweek. Although some local heavy downpours and standing water will occur, major flooding is not expected.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The well-advertise stormy forecast remains on track today as we look upstream to see numerous severe storms across MO/IL. Those areas will be hardest hit with a moderate severe storm risk in place and expectation of several strong tornadoes. The storms to our northwest will form into clusters and bands as they come down our way. We expect the main impacts from these storms to reach Middle TN late this evening and overnight, but a few cells may develop ahead of the main batch. If this happens, it would be across our western counties perhaps as early as 4 PM.

All modes of severe wx are in play, especially across our northwest counties. At the onset we will have strong deep layer shear around 45 KT, cape values around 1500-2000 J/kg, steep mid level lapse rates, and good low level SRH, all pointing toward supercell potential. Along with damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph and large hail, there is a tornado risk including risk for strong (EF2) tornadoes for our northwest counties. The storm mode will become more linear as we go through the night, so damaging wind gusts will become more dominant. Along with that, there will be local heavy downpours. Some local street and low-spot flooding should be expected, but we are not seeing enough sustained heavy rainfall to think there will be major areal or river flooding.

We may get more excitement again Tuesday, especially late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as a second low center rides northeastward out of the Arklatex along a residual boundary from tonight's storms. the scenario for late Tuesday is more uncertain. It will depend on where the residual boundary sets up and how much atmospheric recovery occurs after tonight's storms. At this time, parameters look favorable for some pockets of damaging winds and large hail with a very low tornado threat.

The best news out of this stormy pattern will be some much- welcomed rainfall to help with the drought. Latest forecasts show much of the area getting between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall by midweek.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Some leftover showers and storms will be possible Wednesday morning as cooler air starts to filter in from the north. Another wave may bring some showers late Thursday into Friday followed by a reinforcement of cooler air. Next weekend looks dry and chilly with some areas having lows in the 30s (frost Plateau?) and highs possibly limited to the 50s and lower 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A very active taf period is expected with numerous showers and thunderstorms, including some severe storms, during the 00Z-12Z time frame. Conditions will vary widely during this time with some storms containing damaging winds and large hail.

Until then, VFR will prevail with gusty south winds over 25 KT at times. After the storms, mainly MVFR cigs with lingering light showers.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.