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000 FXUS64 KOHX 111040 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 540 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 539 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
- Hot and humid conditions today with afternoon heat indices reaching the 100s west of the Plateau.
- Showers and storms likely on Friday along a cold front. Some storms could be strong during the afternoon.
- Medium to high chances for showers and storms Sunday into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
A clear night with lows in the 70s is in store for Middle Tennessee this evening. High pressure will dominate the forecast through this evening , putting heat indices in the triple digits and actual air temperatures not much lower. If you have any outdoor plans, make sure you're staying adequately hydrated and taking breaks out of the heat to prevent heat illness.
Friday morning, a cold front will invade Middle Tennessee, bringing another round of showers and storms. Severe threat looks low with this system, but we could certainly see some strong storms with the instability that is expected to be present. We will continue to monitor the potential for severe that has been seen in some pieces of guidance. Right now, CAMs are not excited about the developed squall line making its way into the area. However, daytime heating as the front passes through could help bolster development along and ahead of the front. Guidance is also suggesting high PWATs above 2" again, so we will have to keep an eye on moisture as we go into Friday. With any strong storms, main hazards would be gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Past Friday, a drier airmass enters the forecast and provides a break in the humidity for at least part of the weekend. Looks like showers and thunderstorms will return Saturday night into Sunday and continue through early next week. Initially into the work week, temperatures will cool into the low 80s for highs, but by mid-week, they start to creep up once again into the mid and upper 80s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will generally be southerly to southwesterly with occasional gusts of 15-20 knots this afternoon. Mostly clear skies through this afternoon, but cloud cover will increase towards the end of this TAF period ahead of the next storm system.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Nashville | 95 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 50% | 10% |
| Clarksville | 92 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 0% | 30% | 30% | 0% |
| Crossville | 87 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 80% | 10% |
| Columbia | 93 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 60% | 10% |
| Cookeville | 90 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 80% | 10% |
| Jamestown | 89 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 80% | 10% |
| Lawrenceburg | 90 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 80% | 10% |
| Murfreesboro | 94 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 80% | 10% |
| Waverly | 93 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 0% | 30% | 40% | 0% |
OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Clements