Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- No rain chances through Thursday; we will enjoy plenty of sunshine the next three days.

- A more unsettled weather pattern will emerge on Friday and/or Saturday when storms with low risk of damaging winds may develop.

- There is a medium risk of severe storms across the mid-state on Monday afternoon/Monday night with the passage of a significant cold front. This may include the risk of tornadoes, damaging straight line winds and large hail.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday Night) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Yet another fantastic day is under way across Middle TN. Mostly clear skies, afternoon highs in the low 80s, low dew points and a bit of a breeze. Can we bottle this, please? More of the same is expected Wednesday and Thursday. The only difference will be it won't feel as dry. Weak southerly boundary layer flow will develop and allow dew points to climb a little and it'll be a little warmer each day. In the end, no rain through Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

As we've been talking about the last day or two, rain chances will reenter the forecast across the mid-state on Friday. Let's let that soak in for a minute and not look past Friday or Saturday to what many are already highlighting on the social medias: Monday. We'll talk about that in a minute. Friday and Saturday need to be talked about first. Now, yes. I don't like either day as much as I'm starting to like Monday for severe potential. They're both going to be more conditional, mostly based on what's going on upstream from us. However, any storms that develop upstream and move into Middle TN Friday evening are going to be moving into an environment that honestly, I wouldn't ignore. We do have CAPE, while marginal, available to use. Shear is looking better than it did yesterday and so are lapse rates. Enough so that, as of right now, there is at least a marginal wind threat. Obviously this can change, but I don't want us to look past it because SPC has a Day 7 outlook for Middle TN. There is some indication that this could be a Friday evening thing only, as Saturday's surface winds may be out of the the north (negating any real severe threat), so let's watch this one first.

Ok, Monday. Models are in pretty good agreement about a negatively tilted trough ejecting out of the Plains on Monday and into the Great Lakes region. As it does so, ample Gulf moisture will stream into the TN Valley. Low to mid-60s dew points should encompass Middle TN Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings are droolable for the average forecaster: an early-day capped environment, 1500-2000 J/Kg CAPE, mid-7s lapse rates, along with healthy and updraft- sustaining shear values Monday afternoon into Monday evening. These type of numbers lead to calculated parameters like STP (2-3) and supercell composite (9-10) for areas along and west of I-65 Monday. For the last two weeks, we've been watching the middle of the country get hammered with severe weather and it might be our turn. I like to talk about limiting factors when it comes to severe weather also, and I only have one right now -- it's 7 days out. So, let's take this one step at a time as many thing could change before now and then. Focus on Friday/Saturday first, then we'll deal with Monday. Please remain weather aware and check back throughout the week on the latest.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Gusty southwesterly winds of 15-20 knots will diminish around 00Z, but will become gusty again by late Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.