Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot and humid conditions today with afternoon heat indices reaching the low 100s west of I-65, mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

- High chance (<80%) for showers and storms Friday along a cold front. Some storms could be strong to severe during the afternoon mainly posing a threat for damaging wind gusts.

- Medium to high chances for showers and storms Sunday, lower chances for early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Ridging remains in place across the region today with a humid southwesterly breeze across Middle Tennessee. Heat and humidity will combine for heat indices in the 90s east of I-65 and the low 100s closer to the Tennessee River this afternoon.

Meanwhile a storm system is impacting the Upper Midwest. The disturbance aloft responsible for this remain across the Plains, but will continue eastward toward the Great Lakes region tonight into tomorrow morning. An associated cold front will gradually approach Middle Tennessee tomorrow morning as a result, and this should contain a band of weakening convection. The front is projected to continue toward the I-40 corridor by early afternoon. With diurnal heating and abundant pre-front moisture, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Forecast soundings depict SBCAPE of 2,500-3,500 J/kg thanks to rich boundary layer moisture with DCAPE in the 700-1,000 J/kg range. These profiles will support transient strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and small to possibly 1" hail. Severe weather shouldn't be too long-lived since eff. bulk shear is <15 kts (best flow aloft remains well to our north). Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Friday night into Saturday morning will bring more stable post- frontal conditions to the area with a transition to zonal flow aloft. Best moisture will be displaced to our south. However, a shortwave disturbance is forecast to dive southeast from the Northern Plains toward the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This should act to pull moisture/instability back to the north which would foster medium-high chances for rain and storms given favorable forcing for ascent entering from the northwest. There's no current concerns for severe weather or flooding, but we'll keep an eye on it.

The main forecast change from this time yesterday is a decrease in rain chances early-mid next week. Guidance has trended drier for our region thanks to the upper-level trough dipping closer to the Southeast behind the system on Sunday. Nonetheless, PoPs are generally <35% through mid next week and the pattern looks somewhat active for mid June and therefore less predictable for mid next week at this current forecast range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions persist through most of the TAF period, with a chance of showers associated with a cold front moving through between 7z and 12z. A low chance of afternoon thunderstorms is present Friday afternoon after 18z. Winds remain south-southwesterly before shifting to an west-northwesterly flow Friday afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually thicken throughout the TAF period in association with the incoming cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.