Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances return early Saturday (60-80% chance) with another chance for severe storms from 3 to 8 AM.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Next chance for rain appears to be Wednesday with much uncertainty in the forecast details beyond Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mostly clear skies with northwesterly winds keeping temperatures very pleasant this evening. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper-level pattern well, with a broad trough over the Northern Plains and the wave that lead to damaging storms across our area this morning is currently wreaking havoc over northern Illinois this evening.

We see weak ridging pass across our area on Friday keeping skies clear. We lose the cooling effect of the northerly winds, though, with a shift back to southerly flow by the afternoon. This will allow temperatures to warm back into the mid 80s, though humidity will remain low. Friday night we'll see the western side of the ridge start to bring moisture back up into our region from the Gulf. With the nocturnal amplification of the LLJ, we'll see the atmosphere destabilize above the boundary layer Friday night ahead of a shortwave riding across the nearly zonal flow at 250-mb over the Central Plains. This will trigger another round of overnight storms early Saturday morning. Current guidance is leaning toward more of an early-morning threat for strong to severe storms, which would be elevated lending to a greater hail, wind, and flooding threat. If timing slows down, we'd see an increased potential for surface-based storms which means tornadoes. Right now the greater potential for surface-based storms is over eastern Kansas into Missouri.

Sunday and beyond...

Once storms clear on Saturday or Saturday night, a cooler Canadian air mass settles back over our region with mild, dry weather expected through Tuesday. The upper-level zonal flow in place over the weekend cedes to a strong trough dropping out of Alberta, deepening across the Upper-Mississippi River Valley Monday into Tuesday. To the west, we see ridging build up over the PacNW, expanding eastward into the Great Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. As this occurs, we'll see temperatures trending back upward Tuesday into Wednesday.

A rigorous shortwave rides down into the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon/evening, leading to the development of a broad area of low pressure over the High Plains. As this shifts eastward and deepens Tuesday night, we see the development of a strong nocturnal LLJ pushing into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This will advect significant moisture back into our area bringing back chances for nocturnal showers and storms into early Wednesday.

Model guidance diverges significantly in how the upper-level pattern responds behind this mid-week system, meaning significant uncertainty in the forecast toward the latter half of next week at this time. Guidance trends of warming temperatures seem likely with the ridge continuing to shift eastward over the Central Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. Winds out of the northwest this evening will shift to westerly later tonight, then on to southwest and southerly Friday morning. Expect winds to start to gust up to 20kt again Friday afternoon.

OAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.