Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain lifts through the UP tonight. Rain amounts between 0.25 and 0.5" are likely with a 50-80% chance for >1" possible across the west-central.

- Cooler and generally more pleasant weather in store this weekend into next week with daily chances for light rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals a trough digging across the Upper MS Valley. A convectively augmented mid-level shortwave is lifting north through the Driftless region into the southern Great Lakes, reflecting a weak sfc low pressure in southern Wisconsin. Closer to home, high to mid level clouds are beginning to stream into the UP as well as some light radar reflectivity, though only drizzle has been noted by a few neighboring WI ASOS stations. Local temps have peaked in the 70s to low 80s. The main story through the near term forecast period is healthy rainfall lifting into the UP this evening as the aforementioned shortwave and sfc low pressure trek northeast through northern Lake Michigan. Strong isentropic ascent coupled with PWATs near 1.5" will allow a period of moderate to heavy rain tonight for much of the area. CAM ensembles are in decent agreement that the western 2/3rds of the UP will receive at least 0.25" (80-100% chance) while a stripe from Marquette Co to the Keweenaw potentially collects >1" (50-80% chance). Given ample moisture and warm cloud depths just a tad over 10k ft, wouldn't shock me to see isolated amounts upwards of 1.5-2" should a few embedded thunderstorms persist, though CAMs are not too enthusiastic about the presence of much elevated instability. The more widespread precip should lift into the western UP this evening around 6-7pm local, filling into the central and east between 8-9p local. Modest pressure rises and cold air advection will result in gusty wsw winds, especially across the Keweenaw where gusts 20-30 mph will be common Friday morning and afternoon.

Once rainfall clears the area early tomorrow morning, expect cooler and somewhat drier conditions for Friday, this weekend, and next week as an upper-level low over the Hudson Bay region keeps our area downstream of continental Canadian air and a synoptic troughing pattern. A weak shortwave rotating into the region could kick-off some diurnal showers and potentially a couple of thunderstorms over the interior areas tomorrow afternoon (15-35% chance). On Saturday, as a second cold front pushes into the region, another shortwave low may ride along the front and bring more rainfall to at least portions of Upper Michigan. While on-and-off rain chances do look to continue for the rest of the period thanks to shortwave lows rotating through the region via the synoptic-scale troughing setup, the cooler and drier air will bring below normal to near normal temperatures (i.e. highs in the 60s and 70s) to the area and dewpoints down into the 40s and 30s (potentially even into the 20s in a couple of spots for the driest days) for much of the rest of the period. While fire weather concerns look to be fairly muted due to the cooler temperatures and continued shortwave action, will continue to monitor the RHs throughout this weekend into next week as we could see min RHs drop below 30% on some days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are still holding steady this evening despite the widespread rain showers across Upper Michigan. However, expect deterioration to MVFR after Fri 03Z and eventually even some IFR conditions in some of the heaviest showers. The best chances for this will be over CMX and SAW. In addition, some LLWS could be seen for a couple of hours this evening as the cold front rolls through tonight; this remains most likely at SAW. As the front pushes out and drier, cooler air is able to move into the area late tonight, expect conditions to gradually improve; VFR conditions look to return to the terminals tomorrow morning as winds blow from the southwest/west.

MARINE

Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Calm winds this afternoon will be on the rise into Friday as a low pressure lifts through the eastern UP late tonight before lifting into eastern Ontario Friday. This track will results in breezy northerlies between 20-30 kts across the east half tonight (15-25 kt wsw in the west half) into early Friday morning. As the low pulls away through day break into the early afternoon, modest pressure rises and cold air advection will continue gusty wsw winds between 25-30 kts lake wide before diminishing below 25 kts Friday night. This pattern is expected to continue through much of the weekend with multiple periods of gusty wsw flow across the lake thanks to a very stubborn low pressure parking itself in far northern Ontario, sending weak shortwaves over the Upper Great Lakes through the early part of next week.

MQT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.