Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms this evening across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The strongest storms could contain small hail and gusty winds.

- Below normal temperatures this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Quite the change this afternoon from the hot & muggy weather we saw earlier in the week as drier Canadian air continues to filter into the region. Plenty of sunshine has allowed for temepratures to approach 80 across much of the area, while mixing from breezy west winds is resulting in very comfortable dewpoints for June in the 40s. The main cold front ahead of an even larger Canadian airmass is still across northern Minnesota early this afternoon and will continue to drop southwards this evening & into tomorrow morning. High-resolution models continue to depict a narrow region of scattered showers & thunderstorms developing ahead of this front across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin this evening into tonight, although they very slightly on juts how far north or south the main axis of precipitation will develop. Impressive deep shear near 50 kts is present along the front, but instability values will likely only reach a few hundred J/kg at most by the time storms develop this evening. Thus, we could see a few stronger storms capable of small hail & brief gusty winds tonight, but no sustained or widespread severe storms are expected. The showers & thunderstorms dissipate closer to midnight, but another round of precipitation likely develops tomorrow morning ahead of the front as it continues to dip southwards into Iowa & Wisconsin. ANy precipitation tomorrow looks to be limited to far-southern Minnesota, with any stronger storms limited to iowa & southern Wisconsin.

A pleasant summer weekend is expected as the Canadian airmass settles over the weekend. Highs with only reach the upper 60s to low 70s with very comfortable dew points in the 40s, possible even 30s on Sunday. May need to monitor the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday as RH values dip below 30% and winds gust to around 20 mph. The below-normal temperatures look to stick with us through much of next week as broad troughing & cooler northwest flow lingers over the Great Lakes region. A few perturbations in the flow could give us chances for light precipitation, mainly late Monday into Tuesday & again midweek, but no heavy rain or severe thunderstorms are anticipated. We look to return to seasonal warmer & muggier conditions for the end of the week, along with better chances for thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Early this morning the last few of the showers are moving across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Some periods of MVFR are expected at MKT and EAU as in the first few hours of this period as the final showers move through. Overall thunder activity has decreased significantly over the past few hours. Still a small chance for a rumble at MKT, but it was too low for inclusion in the TEMPO there. Looking ahead to tomorrow the main impact will be diurnal northwest winds gusting up to a little over 20 knots.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. MON...VFR/Chc MVFR -SHRA late. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. TUE...VFR/Chc MVFR -SHRA late. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.