Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot and humid conditions return with heat indices of 100-107 this weekend.

- Risk for rip currents increases to MODERATE today through the weekend for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly early next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The hot temperatures continue as we have upper ridging overhead. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s will dominate through Sunday with some relief the beginning of next week as rain chances increase and a front approaches. Heat indices through Sunday are expected to be in the 100-105 range. A more typical summertime diurnal pattern for convection will begin tomorrow and mainly into the weekend with the ridge becoming less dominant over the area.

Periods of heavy rainfall and flooding looks increasingly likely as the current ridge breaks down and we are influenced by an approaching trough. WPC has placed the northwest portions of the area within a slight risk for excessive rainfall for day 5 (Monday). Cluster analysis of ensembles shows some differences with the strength of the trough/shortwaves and associated precipitation footprint. GEFS dominant cluster 1 shows a deeper trough with the precipitation further south as compared to the ENS dominant cluster 2 with a weaker trough and highest precipitation axis further north and west. Anomalous deep moisture will move into the area by Sunday night into Monday with PWATs highly likely to be above 2" and probably closer to 2.1-2.2". Using Slidell sounding climatology, this is above the 90th percentile (1.96") and approaching the max of 2.29" for mid June. Precipitation totals will highly depend on where the boundary sets up and stalls over our area. This will be monitored in the coming days as a more refined picture becomes evident.

BEACH FORECAST - The rip current risk has now increased to MODERATE and will continue through early next week as we have dominant onshore flow. NWPS shows the potential for increasing wave heights within and along the coastlines of the Gulf early next week. RCMOS shows rip current risk increasing to HIGH for our beaches Tuesday with the increasing onshore flow. SS/97

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR flight category prevails for the most part across the region through Friday. Patchy fog, locally dense, is possible in spots tonight which could lead to reductions in flight category. VFR flight category returns to all locations after daybreak with any fog quickly eroding after sunrise. Winds remain generally light and variable tonight, becoming southwesterly less than 5 knots inland Friday and southerly near the coast with the afternoon seabreeze around 10 knots Friday afternoon. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Light onshore flow will continue through tonight. A diurnal pattern develops Friday and will linger through the weekend, with light westerly to northwesterly flow at night and southwesterly flow during the day. Moderate onshore flow returns for the early to middle part of next week. Rain chances will also be on the increase next week. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near and around thunderstorms. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.