Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- The combination of low humidity values, gusty winds, and moderate to extreme drought will lead to dangerous fire conditions today.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected Wednesday night into Thursday for local area beaches.

- Rain chances are expected to increase late Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Now through Monday...

Through Thursday, an upper level shortwave trough moves through an upper ridge shifts from over the Plains to the Mississippi River Valley, with an upper level trough moving over the Southeast mid week. A surface ridge has begun to organize over the Southern Plains to the Southeast, though best Gulf moisture influx remains west of the forecast. With that, the best chance of rain remains west of the forecast area through mid week. The advancing upper ridge will help temperatures to remain a bit above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the upper 70s to around 85 expected through mid week. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s inland from the coast, mid 60s along the coast are expected.

The upper ridge over the Mississippi River continues to shift east the latter half of the week through the weekend, allowing shortwave energy to pass closer and closer to the Southeast. Ultimately, a weak surface front pushes south over the Southeast in the coming weekend in response. Combined with onshore flow bringing increased Gulf moisture inland, precipitation returns over the coming weekend. Highest PoPs are expected to be closer to the front, read over the northern half of the forecast area. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep temperatures above seasonal norms.

Offshore flow lasts through Tuesday, keeping the Rip Risk low into the coming week. The return of onshore flow mid week will bring back increased swell to area beaches and a rise in the Rip Current risk to Moderate to High the latter half of the week. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR flight conditions will prevail with only an increase in high level clouds. Light northeasterly to easterly winds will become southeasterly to southerly at 5 to 10 knots today wind tomorrow. Winds gusting to near 20 knots can be expected near the coast this afternoon. /22

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly into midweek will become predominately southeasterly Wednesday afternoon through Friday, turning more southerly by this weekend. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution this morning from 20 to 60 NM. /22

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area. With drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect for Tuesday, just for Florida on Wednesday. Also, a Fire Alert has been issued for Alabama. Most of the ingredients for a Red Flag Watch/Warning are present, but not all. Will let day shift continue with coordination with relevant fire weather folks on any WWAs needed. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.