Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded the SCA to include the rest of the near shore coastal waters, the sounds and Alligator River.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through at least mid-week.

2) Cool, below normal temperatures through Tuesday.

3) Unsettled weather may develop late in the week with at least a modest chance of showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Yesterday's rainfall was not enough to alleviate these drought conditions.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Deep mixing in the afternoon today and Wednesday allows for relative humidities 20- 25% and wind gusts around or above 20 mph. Tuesday we will reach low RH's, but winds should remain light with high pressure overhead.

A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A reinforcing shot of cooler air will accompany a cold front after it moves through this evening. Where winds decouple inland, some very light, patchy frost may develop. However, this risk doesn't appear to be widespread enough to warrant any frost headlines. Cool, below normal temperatures are expected to last into Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday look to top out about 5 degrees cooler than today.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Late in the week, the upper level pattern is forecast to change from northerly flow aloft to more of a zonal flow aloft regime. Increasing moisture and instability within this pattern, plus easterly-progressing shortwaves embedded within the zonal flow, may support a modest increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially Friday-Monday. Guidance differs quite a bit on the coverage and amount of precipitation each day during that time, but the main message at this point is that the potential exits for a somewhat wetter pattern to develop. For reference, the latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center gives all of ENC a 40-50% chance of seeing above normal precipitation. It should be noted that not all guidance agrees on the wetter pattern, but it is something we'll be watching in the coming days, as precipitation is very much needed around the region.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mid clouds will dissipate through the evening with a dry cold front pushing south across rtes. Winds will become NE behind the front and could see gusts to around 15 kt inland and up to 30 kt along the coast for a few hours behind the front. NE wind around 10 kt Tuesday morning will become light and variable in the afternoon.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected most of the week but could see patchy late night, early morning fog at some terminals.

MARINE

A cold front will advance south across the ENC waters this evening. Southwesterly winds around 10-20kt ahead of the front will quickly become NE around 15-25kt with gusts to 25-30kt behind the front. Expanded the SCA to include the rest of the near shore coastal waters, the sounds and Alligator River, for several hours this evening into the early morning hours Tuesday. Over the coastal waters, seas will build to 3-5ft by this evening, with 4-6ft expected across the central coastal waters. Over the outer waters, seas are expected to build to 5-8ft by this evening.

Outlook: Winds and seas are expected to lay down on Tuesday as high pressure builds in. This will be short-lived as yet another cold front approaches the area on Wednesday. This will lead to building winds and seas both ahead of, and behind, the front, with another risk of 25kt winds. Marine headlines will likely be needed for some of the inner and coastal waters with this front. A few thunderstorms may accompany the front as well. Looking further out, a more unsettled weather pattern may develop by the weekend with a risk of scattered thunderstorms and elevated winds and seas.

MHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-150-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.