Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 632 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening, favoring inland and SW FL.

- Increasing rain chances Friday through the weekend as moisture increases.

- Heat indices around 100 this afternoon. Max heat indices of 100-105 possible Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the interior and SW Florida associated with sea breeze collisions. A moderately moist airmass remains in place, with the 12Z MFL sounding and recent ACARS data showing PWAT values between 1.5-1.8 inches. A pocket of dry air between 600-850mb has helped to limit strong thunderstorm activity. However, additional thunderstorm development is possible through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening along boundary interactions. Activity should gradually diminish through the evening with the loss of daytime heating, leaving mainly dry conditions overnight across the region. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 70s across interior portions of South Florida and the mid to upper 70s along the coasts.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Fairly benign summer-like pattern in place the next couple of days across South FL with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic today, and then shifting into the central Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, there are some indications of a weak high developing over the eastern Gulf by Friday. Forecast soundings for today show PWAT values of 1.8-2.0 inches with some drier air aloft between 300-500 mb. Slightly higher PWAT values of 1.9-2.1 inches are expected on Friday as the low level flow becomes more southeasterly, however there are still some indications of some dry air aloft in the forecast soundings.

Isolated coastal showers are possible early this morning and then convection picks up this afternoon into early evening, with the highest PoPs expected over interior SW FL. Activity wanes late this evening with mostly dry conditions expected overnight outside of some occasional coastal showers along the east coast. Higher chances of showers and storms expected on Friday with the increased moisture and a more southeasterly low level flow. While the highest PoPs will continue to be over interior portions of South FL, expect the east coast metro to be more in play for convection during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures today and Friday will remain slightly above normal, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s across the metro, and lower 70s across inland South FL. Max heat indices around 100 are expected both today and Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This weekend into early next week another surface high will develop in the western Atlantic and anchor itself there through at least the middle of next week. This will result in a moderate SE flow across South FL during the extended period. An upper level low will develop in the vicinity of eastern Cuba the second half of the weekend and meander in the region well into next week. Too early to tell what if any enhancement of moisture this may have for South FL, but it will be worth keeping an eye on over the coming days. Convection each day will be primarily diurnally driven with the highest chances during the afternoon and early evening hours, and the highest PoPs will be over the interior. This will be welcome news especially for the Everglades where extreme drought conditions persist.

Temperatures in the extended will continue to be above normal with highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps will be in the mid to upper 70s, with some places near the coast struggling to fall below 80 on some nights. Max heat indices of 100-105 are expected this weekend and then heat indices may approach advisory criteria early to mid next week. Timing of convection each day will likely play a significant role into whether or not the criteria is reached for at least a couple hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail for the period. Easterly winds around 10 kts across all east coast terminals will gradually diminish overnight, then increase out of the SE after 16Z Friday. A westerly wind shift is expected at KAPF after 17Z as a Gulf breeze develops. A few showers are possible tomorrow near the east coast terminals after 16Z, but the bulk of convection should develop near the Gulf coast.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Gentle easterly winds are expected today, turning southwesterly in the Gulf waters during the afternoon into early evening hours. Seas 1-2 ft in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms possible across the area waters today, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

BEACHES

Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Continued easterly flow will result in an elevated risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches. Improving conditions are expected beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MFL WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.