Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- A cold front will approach the region tonight, bringing a low-end severe thunderstorm threat to Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and extreme Northwest Tennessee between midnight and 4 AM.

- An unsettled weather pattern will persist through early next week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, though severe weather probabilities remain low.

- Below normal temperatures are anticipated next week with highs in the low 80s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A large upper level trough continues to traverse the Northern Plains late this morning, stretching a cold front across northwest Missouri as it continues diving southeasterly. Ahead of this boundary, the Mid-South will remain influenced by a large area of high pressure. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s. No heat headlines are in effect today as probabilities from the HREF indicate a 30-60% chance of heat indices exceeding 100F along and west of the MS River today, but those probabilities are nil for 105F (which is Heat Advisory criteria).

The aforementioned cold front will approach the region overnight into Friday morning, bringing beneficial rainfall to northeast Arkansas. Due to the persistent 591 dam upper-level ridge that has dominated the Gulf Coast for the last few days, the cold front will struggle to bring steep height falls to our area. The best height falls will remain displaced north of the Mid-South, but temperatures will still be in the 80s and perhaps the lower 90s as precipitation arrives. This will leave behind some residual surface based instability which could be just enough for a strong to severe storm or two. Bulk shear, however, is not likely to exceed 35kts. Even the 90th percentile has a 36 kt maxima of bulk shear, geographically aligned with the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather. Model solutions favor this frontal boundary being washed out due to the intensity of the ridge, which keeps confidence on the lower end for severe storms tonight. Instability may be strong enough for damaging wind gusts within the storms, but other factors remain lackluster. If a severe storm were to occur tonight, expected location would be in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and extreme northwest Tennessee between midnight and 4 AM.

Another area of low pressure will emerge from the Central Plains and stretch a warm front across the area on Saturday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. On Sunday, the cold front associated with this system will attempt to cross the region bringing yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. During this time frame, a large-scale troughing pattern will emerge and encompass much of the central CONUS to start the work week.

On Tuesday, an embedded southern stream shortwave will become absorbed within the broader-scale trough. This interaction will send yet another cold front towards the Mid-South. The LREF keeps low (<20%) probabilities of severe weather ingredients daily through this unsettled pattern. Aside from severe weather chances, probabilities from the LREF of accumulating 2 or more inches of rain over the next 7 days are between 20-30% along and north of I-40 with 30-50% probabilities south of the corridor. It remains too early to tell specifics, but the greatest chance for any severe weather will likely be in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe when lift from the frontal boundary will be approaching. While severe weather remains uncertain, confidence is medium to high in below normal temperatures expected next week due to rain cooled surfaces, extensive cloud cover, and northwest flow. Temperatures are currently forecast to be 5-10 degrees below normal for mid June.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the period. A weak cold front will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight into Friday morning. An associated cluster of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is expected to weaken as they move into the region. Highest confidence for rain showers occurring is at JBR overnight and kept PROB30 mention at MEM and MKL. Confidence in TS coverage remains too low to include mention in the 18Z TAF set but will reevaluate for subsequent TAF issuances. Gusty SW winds will veer NW with passage of cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances resume Friday and will persist into the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.