Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist across the area today. The hottest temperatures (highs between 104-108, locally nearing 110) will be along the Rio Grande and in the Pecos River Valley.

- Temperatures cool down a touch this weekend before a cold front brings even cooler conditions early next week.

- Near daily rain chances are forecast for western portions of our area through the end of the week. By early next week, rain chances become low to medium areawide.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current mesoanalysis shows an upper-level trough moving across northern portions of the CONUS. Closer to home, lee troughing is evident at the surface. This, along with a low-level jet, has helped keep southerly winds breezy this morning especially across the eastern half of the area. Today's forecast is largely similar to yesterday's. Hot temperatures (mainly in the upper 90s and above 100 degrees) persist areawide under a broad area of upper-level high pressure. Highs between 104-108 degrees will be common in the Pecos River Valley and along the Rio Grande, with some locations once again nearing 110 degrees along the international border. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, mainly in and near the higher terrain west of the Pecos (particularly in the Davis Mountains, where we have 20-40% PoPs). While the overall severe threat is low, like yesterday a few thunderstorms may become strong to marginally severe, capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and/or some hail (generally up to the size of quarters). Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding will also be possible.

This evening, a front approaches northern portions of our area, becoming diffuse near the CWA border. Additional showers and storms will develop along this front and may track into our northernmost counties tonight, but chances tend to be low (10-20%). Lows bottom out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s again tonight. Southeasterly winds bring more moisture across the area Friday. This helps keep temperatures closer to seasonal norms (low-to-mid 90s in general). Moist upslope flow allows rain chances to again increase in the higher terrain west of the Pecos Friday afternoon and into the evening (20-40% chances).

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Showers/storms over the western portions of our region brought along by a dryline Friday afternoon should diminish during the evening. Upper level troughing over the northern half of the US and upper ridging over northern Mexico result in zonal to northwesterly flow aloft Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile, a surface low developing over the central Plains and a surface high over the eastern Gulf steers winds out of the south and southeast Saturday. As a result, Saturday's highs will top out a few degrees warmer compared to Friday's. Triple digit heat is expected near and along the river valleys, while highs reach the upper 90s for almost everyone else. Similar to Friday, isolated to scattered shower/storm development will be possible over the higher terrain west of the Pecos River Saturday afternoon.

The upper trough begins to deepen over the Plains and the Midwest early next week, pushing a cold front toward our area. Where the front ends up will significantly influence temperatures and rain chances. For now, NBM shows the front reaching the northern portions of our region sometime Sunday morning, then a reinforcing push finally allows it to clear our area Monday night into Tuesday. Given the slow-moving nature of this solution, temperatures and rain chances may vary as we head through the next few days. Highs Sunday are forecast to reach the upper 80s within our northernmost counties and the higher terrain, with 90s for most of the region. Cloud coverage and the advancing front brings highs mainly in the 80s Monday and Tuesday, although low 90s look to return to the Pecos River valley Tuesday afternoon. Low to medium rain chances span areawide Sunday through Tuesday afternoons. Warmer and drier conditions return by midweek due to an upper ridge building back over the western US.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Southerly to southeasterly breezy winds are expected to persist this TAF period. A couple of showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across the Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau. However, there is a bit of uncertainty in coverage and timing. As such, have opted to include PROB30s for TS at FST and PEQ from 19Z- 00Z to account for this.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.