Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist across the area today. The hottest temperatures (highs between 104-108, locally nearing 110) will be along the Rio Grande and in the Pecos River Valley.

- Temperatures cool down a touch this weekend before a cold front brings even cooler conditions early next week.

- Much hotter conditions are possible at the end of next week that could cause heat stress.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level trough moving over the Northern Great Plains, with ridging out ahead of it across the northeastern CONUS. Meanwhile, upper-level high pressure to our south brings quasi-zonal flow aloft. This yields afternoon highs in the upper 90s to above 100 degrees across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Similar to yesterday, many spots along the Pecos River Valley and the Rio Grande can expect to see highs top out between 104 and 108 degrees, with some spots along the border (including the Big Bend) seeing temperatures approach 110 degrees. Though temperatures may be limited to high-level cloud cover over the Pecos River Valley. In addition to the heat, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening (mainly in and around the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend, with 10-30% PoPs). Also similar to yesterday, a few thunderstorms may become strong to marginally severe. The strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, hail (up to quarters), and localized areas of flash flooding where heaviest rainfall occurs.

An approaching cold front reaches our region this evening, becoming diffuse near our forecast area. This brings low (~10%) chances of additional shower and thunderstorm development, mainly across our northernmost counties. By Friday, southeasterly winds increase and transport more moisture in this upslope flow regime. This yields higher PoPs (20-50%) across the higher terrain. The increased moisture and resulting cloud cover brings temperatures closer to climatology, with afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90s for most. Greening

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Weak mid level westerly flow keeps temperatures climatologically hot on Saturday. Models show a cold front reaching the Permian Basin on Sunday, and combined with increasing clouds and rain will bring temps down several degrees. Models have become faster in bringing the front into the CWA and the temperature forecast has decreased accordingly. The best rain chances in the Permian Basin are expected along and just behind the front where deep layer moisture and lift will be greatest late Sunday and into early Monday. Rain chances continue as the front sags south but will taper off into Tuesday as the focus of rainfall shifts into the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos. Isolated heavy rain and flash flooding is possible but is not expected to be wide spread enough to warrant a Flood Watch.

High pressure behind the front builds south with Monday being the coolest day with highs in the 80s. The high slides east on Tuesday and returning southerly winds advect in slightly warmer temperatures though still below what is normal for this time of year. These cool temperatures should be enjoyed because it will likely come to an abrupt late in the week as an upper level high builds into New Mexico and Texas. 593dam 500mb heights and high pressure centered over West Texas indicates we could be in store for the hottest temperatures so far this season. This is still seven days out so much could change but be prepared for very hot and dry conditions soon.

Hennig

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

TS will affect KPEQ and KINK for another couple of hours before dissipating. Additional storms will form this evening around KLUB and will send an outflow south. Amendments may be needed should this wind shift make if further than expected. Otherwise, VFR will prevail with gusty south winds through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.