Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Below to near normal temperatures and low (10-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms persist through Tuesday, before a warming/drying trend begins Wednesday lasting through the weekend.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions return Wednesday lasting through the weekend across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.

- High winds will be possible in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains from late Thursday morning through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level shortwave trough positioned across southwestern New Mexico. This feature has provided a rainy morning for portions of west Texas and will continue to bring dreary weather throughout the day over the Permian Basin and far southeast New Mexico. Low clouds keep high temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s across the Permian Basin and far southeast New Mexico. Highs in the 60s and mid 70s are expected elsewhere this afternoon. Additional isolated to scattered storms are in store mainly for areas along and south of Interstate 10 where there is not as much cloud coverage. Storms are not expected to be severe, though gusty winds and some hail look to be prevalent for the strongest storm. Tonight, the shortwave trough skirts over southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. This will bring a wave of showers and a couple of rumbles of thunder mainly for locations south of Interstate 10. Continued southeasterly winds supplies more Gulf moisture throughout the region. As a result, patchy fog may occur across portions of the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and far southeast New Mexico through Tuesday morning. Light on and off showers are also anticipated across the Permian Basin overnight.

Tuesday, subtle upper-level ridging takes shape bringing warmer weather to the region. Highs are forecast to be in the 70s to mid 80s for most. CAMs indicate another round of isolated to scattered storms south of Interstate 10 during the afternoon before dissipating by the early evening hours. This will be the last significant chance of rainfall the area sees through the rest of the week. An upper-level storm system looks to deliver gusty/breezy winds along with critical fire weather conditions mid to late week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A dry and windy pattern begins on Wednesday thanks to an approaching upper-level storm system. At the surface, lee troughing will be over the region supplying strong to breezy westerly/southwesterly winds through Thursday. This allows above normal temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most locations both days. By Thursday, a Pacific front brings stronger westerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures compared to Wednesday. Long-range guidance also depicts a mountain wave signature across the Guadalupe indicating the potential for high winds. With dry conditions and strong winds, critical fire weather conditions look to occur across southeast New Mexico and portions of far west Texas Thursday afternoon. Friday into the weekend, warmer than normal temperatures persist due to quasi-zonal flow aloft and surface lee troughing. Guidance has a secondary upper-level storm system moving across the Desert Southwest by Sunday, providing more windy and dry conditions across the region. This will increase fire weather conditions over similar areas and possibly more strong winds across the Guadalupe Mountains. Stay tuned!

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

IFR stratus and even a little fog will persist through late morning, before scattering out to a spars cu field, w/bases ~ 4.5-7 kft AGL. Light surface winds will continue veering to southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.