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000 FXUS64 KLZK 112219 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 519 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
-Hot and humid conditions are expected through Thursday evening, including heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees.
-Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across northwest Arkansas Thursday evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible.
-Increasing and more widespread rain chances are expected through the weekend and into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Thurs wl bring another day of hot and humid conditions acrs the FA, w/ area high temps climbing to the low to mid 90s. The greatest heat risk, including heat index values over 100 degrees, is expected over portions of the AR River Valley, and Ern to NErn AR. Thru the day, gusty SWrly winds of 10 to 15 kts should aid in BL mixing and keeping dewpoints lower.
Thurs evening, a sfc cdfrnt is progged to advance into NWrn AR near 12/00Z. An attendant, but isolated severe threat is fcst along this frnt as it moves thru the Ozark Plateau region. A pre-frontal environment characterized by modest instability, but generally weaker effective shear is expected. Latest suite of CAMs is indicative of a semi-discrete cluster storm-mode, though mainly bndry parallel shear wl support cold pool interactions and lkly hinder a prolonged discrete storm-mode. The main hazards w/ any convective development wl include damaging wind gusts and large hail.
The aforementioned frnt is progged to wash out acrs the FA, and become the focus for daily and more widespread PoPs thru the weekend. NBM guidance remains settled on weekend QPF totals around 2 to 3 inches acrs a large portion of the state. There is still considerable spread amongst NBM probabilistic guidance, w/ 10th to 90th percentile spread close to 3 to 4 inches over much of the state. Latest deterministic guidance also continues to highlight this uncertainty, w/ a more Swrd trend in the stalled frnt closer to the AR/LA border region. On the brighter side, daily temperatures thru the weekend PD wl be several degrees cooler acrs the region, including some much needed overnight cooling relief.
By mid-week next week and thru the end of the PD, rain chances taper off as H500 troughing maneuvers thru the Srn US and drives the aforementioned stalled frnt forward towards the Gulf Coast. Upper troughing is progged to give way to more zonal flow/weak ridging, w/ sfc high pressure residing over the FA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
A cold front will drop SE into the state this evening...with chances for convection increasing. Best chances will be along this front as it drops SE overnight into Fri morning. However...some scattered SHRA may be seen well ahead of the front this evening across central sections. Some isolated/scattered convection may remain possible into Fri afternoon...but coverage will be less.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Batesville AR | 73 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 80% | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Camden AR | 77 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 20% | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Harrison AR | 67 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 100% | 20% | 40% | 60% |
| Hot Springs AR | 76 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 60% | 70% | 20% | 20% |
| Little Rock AR | 77 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 70% | 60% | 30% | 30% |
| Monticello AR | 78 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| Mount Ida AR | 75 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 60% | 70% | 20% | 20% |
| Mountain Home AR | 68 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 80% | 10% | 40% | 70% |
| Newport AR | 75 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 70% | 20% | 20% | 50% |
| Pine Bluff AR | 77 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 40% | 60% | 20% | 30% |
| Russellville AR | 75 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 80% | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Searcy AR | 75 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 70% | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| Stuttgart AR | 78 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 50% | 50% | 30% | 40% |
LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...62