Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

-Dry and pleasant weather conditions today (Sunday) into the day on Monday.

-Unsettled weather pattern returns to Arkansas late Monday night into the day on Tuesday with strong to severe thunderstorms possible between Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

-Rain and possible storm chances return on Saturday to Arkansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, a H500 slightly amplified ridge will be positioned over Arkansas. A cutoff low will begin to develop over the Southwestern region of the CONUS and a trof axis will become positively-tilted over the northern region of the CONUS and continue to swing over the Western region of the CONUS over this period.

At the sfc, high pressure will meander across the region while a cold front will approach southern Missouri during the day on Monday from the north.

Expect a continuation of fair weather overall with increasing temperatures across the state as southwesterly winds will continue to advect warm air into Arkansas.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

In the upper lvls, a H500 positively-tilted trof axis will be positioned over the Central Plains approaching the region. At the sfc, a low pressure center will be developing across north-central Oklahoma with a cold front attached to the low pressure center extending northeastward into the Mid-West with a dryline extending southward from the center of the low pressure center across central Oklahoma.

Expect by Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night that a parameter space for strong to severe thunderstorms will be present. Initially, thunderstorm development will be questionable across central Oklahoma with a strong CAP in place, but as these sfc features move throughout the day on Tuesday, thunderstorms are expected to develop by Tuesday evening across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas along the frontal boundary in a more favorable region for ascent given a progged present low level jet in place.

A warm and moist unstable airmass will be in place across Arkansas and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Arkansas/Oklahoma border as discrete cells posing a threat for large hail and a few tornadoes. Convection is expected to become linear throughout the evening timeframe on Tuesday and the main hazard would become damaging wind gusts.

Into Wednesday morning, expect the cold front to be positioned across the state and a line or complex of storms will likely be in progress across central into eastern Arkansas with a few strong to severe storms possible. A window ahead of the cold front will exist across far southern Arkansas for severe storms to take advantage of a conditionally unstable parameter space and pose a risk of strong to severe storms to develop across southern Arkansas before the cold front moves south and east of the state. THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, a split flow zonal jet will be in place over Arkansas with an approaching shortwave by the day on Saturday. At the sfc, a series of close proximity frontal boundaries will provide a source of lift into Saturday.

Expect fair weather conditions to return to the region on Thursday and Friday before chances for rain and thunderstorm chances are expected to return to the forecast by Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all sites for the entire duration of the forecast period from early Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Surface winds will gust at the sites of KHRO and KLIT in excess of 18 knots on Sunday afternoon before relaxing later Sunday evening. Low level wind shear will be present at the sites of KHRO and KBPK during late Sunday morning and early Monday morning at the end of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.