Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening along a passing cold front.

- Additional chances of thunderstorms will continue through the weekend into early next week.

- A brief break in the heat is expected early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The cold front has entered our southwestern zones as of noon and is continuing to push southward, though at a somewhat reduced but still relatively quick speed from this morning. The front is expected to be halfway through the FA by this evening with the timing of the front possibly putting the current forecast high temps in jeopardy on the Caprock. Convection is expected to develop along the front by late afternoon with the highest chances favoring the Rolling Plains with the area of greatest surface convergence. A weakness in the upper ridge will help to initiate convection. Convection should dissipate after sunset as surface heating is lost, but a weak LLJ could help sustain some weak convection to midnight or just beyond. Shear will be relatively weak, 20 knots to a max 30 knots, and will help to limit the overall severe threat. Despite this, some storms will be capable of producing 2 inch hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

Any convection still ongoing after midnight should dissipate by sunrise Friday. A surface lee trough will bring winds to the south Friday afternoon as the upper ridge builds slightly over the region. Despite the slightly stronger ridge, Friday afternoon highs will be much cooler than today thanks to lingering effects of the cold front. Convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain of New Mexico during the afternoon but is not expected to move into the FA before surface heating is lost and storms dissipate. There is the slim chance for a decaying storm to move into our northwest zones after sunset and a slight chance mention has been retained.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A somewhat wet forecast remains in store this weekend through early next week. A second cold front is progged to push through the Texas Panhandle by Saturday afternoon and into the FA by early Sunday. This will be another passive front with little upper support and will struggle to make it to our southern zones. Ample moisture and weaknesses in the upper ridge to our south will aid surface convergence along the front for convective development. The overall threat for severe storms remains low with bulk shear maxing out at 25 knots or less, though wind gusts over 60 mph will still be possible. The main threat will be flash flooding especially if the forward progression of the front stalls and storms begin to train. Upper flow will become more northwesterly Monday and will help push the cold front south of the region and precip chances with it. The forecast mid to late week then looks to be rather quiet yet warm. Surface lee troughing will keep surface winds out of the south to southeast. While this will help us hold on to surface moisture, an overhead upper high will keep most precip chances at bay, though some widely isolated diurnal storms will not be out of the question.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A cold front was currently slowly moving southward through the region. This front is expected to move through KLBB within the next hour or two which will shift winds to the northeast and increase in speeds a bit. Isolated thunderstorms have developed along portions of the front with the greatest activity near KCDS. Chances of thunderstorms near KLBB and KPVW is rapidly decreasing late this afternoon, therefore, no mention was made in the TAF of thunderstorms at these two TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.