Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* A cold front approaching the region tonight will bring a chance for gusty showers and storms early Friday morning. Showers and storms may regenerate across east central/southeast KY Friday afternoon, with the overall severe threat being low.

* Another chance for showers and storms returns Saturday night into Sunday as another cold front moves through the region. This system carries a low, but non-zero threat for strong to severe storms.

* Monday through Wednesday of next week looks to be mostly dry and slightly cooler than average, with our next chance for widespread rainfall coming late Wednesday night into Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 945 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A broken line of strong to severe convection currently extends from Lake Michigan southwest through central IL/MO along a cold front. A strongly unstable airmass is in place immediately downstream of these storms, with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the southern half of IL/IN. However, the boundary layer across southern IN and central KY will now gradually stabilize post-sunset. Recent SDF ACARS soundings also show a substantial mid-level capping inversion near 700 mb. Despite MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg lingering across the northwestern half of the forecast area around 06Z tonight when the front pushes in from the northwest, the thermodynamic profile does not appear conducive to MCS maintenance into southern IN and especially central KY. And with the sharp mid-level trough and vorticity maximum lifting northeast over Lake Superior, synoptic scale ascent will also be much weaker along the southeast-sagging portion of the line (which should become increasingly outflow-dominant by Midnight and beyond).

The chance for showers and perhaps a few storms will increase across southern IN and western KY during the early morning hours. The primary convective risk across these areas would be localized gusty winds due to elevated LCLs and DCAPE. However, the overall severe weather risk remains low with convection steadily weakening by the time it arrives.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Afternoon through Tonight...

Across the region, it is another hot and humid day with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees as of 19Z. The last of the leftover clouds from this morning's activity is dissipating at this time, with scattered diurnal cu developing across the area as convective temps are reached. As a cold front begins to approach the area from the NW, there has been enough of a pressure gradient to produce breezy SW winds today, somewhat mitigating the effects of the hot and humid conditions. Still, heat indices at this hour are generally in the mid-to-upper 90s, with some low 100s being observed across western portions of the CWA.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect continuing hot and humid conditions with mostly sunny skies as the diurnal cu field begins to diminish. A stray shower or storm can't be ruled out, particularly east of I-65; however, a well-defined trigger for convection will be lacking until later tonight.

By the late evening and early hours of Friday morning, a broken line of showers and storms just ahead of a cold front will begin to move into the area from the NW. While the boundary layer should stabilize as usual after sunset, soundings suggest there should still be around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE across southern IN as convection begins to roll in around midnight. On the other hand, the convection is expected to gradually outrun the forcing along the cold front, with stronger lifting associated with an upper trough also expected to remain north of the area. As a result, would expect convection to weaken as it approaches I-65, with many areas east of I-65 seeing little in the way of precipitation chances. As storms are weakening, a low, but non-zero threat for strong gusty winds will continue, as well as heavy rain and lightning. Lows tonight will again be mild, with many areas only falling into the low-to-mid 70s.

Friday through Saturday...

During the morning hours tomorrow, the above-mentioned cold front will be pushing through the area, with its progress slowing as it moves into east central and southeast KY. Behind the front, dewpoints falling into the 60s and upper 50s will curtail the potential for any regeneration of storms, so how far east the front makes it will be crucial for where storm chances are tomorrow. With the latest run of hi-res guidance, it looks like the best chances for storms should be south and east of a line from Lexington to Bowling Green. These locations in the southeast CWA would have a brief window to see storms tomorrow afternoon before the lower dewpoints begin and post-frontal sinking motion moves in. Otherwise, tomorrow should be a dry day for many with seasonable temperatures in the mid 80s and lower humidity.

Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected to continue across the area Friday night into most of the day on Saturday as high pressure briefly settles in behind the cold front. Lows Saturday morning are expected to fall into the upper 50s and low 60s, with highs Saturday generally in the mid 80s.

Saturday Night through Sunday...

While fairly zonal mid- and upper-level flow will be in place at the beginning of the weekend, a shortwave trough is expected to develop over the upper Midwest on Saturday, moving toward the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning. Ahead of this upper disturbance, a resurgence of Gulf moisture is expected, though guidance is still split on how amplified the weekend disturbance will be. A stronger and more amplified system would bring a greater chance for showers and storms into the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, and if instability is sufficient, a threat for strong storms cannot be ruled out. In general, the ECMWF/NAM tend toward a stronger solution, while the GFS is less amplified. AI severe convection guidance based on the ECMWF initial conditions does have an elevated severe risk Saturday night across southern/western portions of the area, so this is something we'll have to monitor over the next 36-48 hours. Fortunately, this system should be progressive enough to limit the flooding threat, with most likely precipitation amounts Saturday night into Sunday between 0.25-0.75".

Conditions should gradually clear from west to east during the latter half of the day on Sunday, setting up what should be a cooler and drier period for early next week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A broad upper-level low over Ontario will remain there over the long term period, with surface ridging filling in over our region as Sunday's cold front departs to the east. Cool and dry air will be ushered in behind the front, allowing for a mostly pleasant start to the workweek. Morning lows Monday through Wednesday will be near or below 60, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s on Monday and in the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. While several shortwaves will move through and south of the area, PW values will be on the lower side, with LREF outputting values of 1.00" or less. A few periods of rain cannot be completely ruled out, with the highest chances for rain being in our southern counties (~15% Monday- Wednesday).

The next potential widespread rainmaker with possible thunderstorms comes late Wednesday night into Thursday as a robust shortwave and associated surface low develop over southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan and moves toward the Great Lakes/Midwest regions. Current LREF guidance has the low moving over northern Michigan, with its cold front moving over our area. Temperatures on Thursday will be warm, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 817 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions and 10-15 kt winds will persist this evening across the terminals before a cold front approaches from the NW tonight after 04Z. A line of showers and storms will be ahead of the front, weakening as it moves across the terminals from the NW to the SE. The frontal passage will bring a shift in winds from the S/SW to the W/NW persisting until the end of the TAF period. The frontal passage will also result in a brief period of lower ceilings, including MVFR cigs at all terminals except for SDF. Cigs will return to VFR shortly after the frontal passage, persisting through the end of the TAF period.

LMK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.