Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Remaining unseasonably warm for today with highs into the low/mid 80s and another afternoon with 20-25 mph wind gusts out of the SSW.

* The next chance for showers and storms is expected Friday into early Saturday. There is a low, but non-zero chance for strong storms producing gusty winds west of I-65 Friday afternoon and evening.

* There is increasing potential for a strong storm system to impact the region next Monday into Monday night. An elevated risk for severe storms exists with this system, though confidence in details remains low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

===== Thursday - Friday Night =====

Another rather quiet weather day is in store for Thursday. An axis of mid to upper level ridging will be moving over the area, ensuring we stay dry during the day. Morning lows with clear skies will dip into the low to upper 50s, though a few eastern river valleys could reach as low as the upper 40s. Otherwise, SW flow with ridging in place will boost temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s for everyone. SW wind gusts will increase with daytime heating ranging 20-25 MPH in the afternoon. Cirrus clouds and general cumulus congestus clouds could also form later in the evening, though with ridging in place, no rain is expected today. Clouds generally clear albeit with cirrus remaining in place with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s in isolated areas.

By Friday morning, the ridge axis moves eastward while a shortwave associated with a strong low over southern Canada will move into our area Friday afternoon, producing one to two rounds of showers and storms. As a result, a cold front will approach the area from the west, though it will be weakening as it approaches. The timing of this front is key determining when storms initiate and how strong the wind gusts will be once they form. Current guidance is that the front begins ushering in clouds and higher dewpoints in the west early in the afternoon before maximum daytime heating can occur, limiting potential storm strength. Additionally, dry air in the lower levels especially in areas east of I-65 from ridging ahead of the front will inhibit storm growth. Along and west of I-65, storms should begin moving in between 11 AM - 2 PM EDT (90%), with eastern areas following by mid to late afternoon.

Altogether, there is a marginal risk for severe weather for strong gusty winds in areas west of Frankfurt, KY. Weakening shear and SBCAPE values Friday evening means that as this front gradually pushes to our eastern areas, the severe threat diminishes. Rainfall totals will vary based on the number of storms that fire up besides the initial line that pushes through earlier Friday afternoon, with 0.25 - 0.5" (50-75% of these totals), though rainfall totals are left-skewed with lesser amounts of 0.1" possible (10-20%) if only one round of showers and storms moves through Friday. Regardless, rain ends for everyone west to east by Saturday morning with lingering clouds overnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Weekend...

Shower/storm chances will linger across the KY/TN border to the Lake Cumberland region and up into the Bluegrass during the day Saturday. PoPs currently are around 20-40 percent for scattered to isolated showers and storms. By late Sat into Sun, ridging builds in over the Ohio Valley in response to a Pacific shortwave trough moving onshore over the central California coast. This will dry things out for the end of the weekend and keep temperatures above normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Severe Weather Potential Monday...

Model guidance continues to highlight a robust signal for strong to severe weather on Monday.

**SYNOPTIC SETUP** The aforementioned Pacific shortwave ejects northeast from the Four Corners Sunday and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. Sfc cyclogenesis will develop and deepen a sfc low over the Central Plains, lifting it towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Monday night.

A warm front will lift across the Ohio Valley on Monday, placing the region deep with in the warm sector. Increase moisture advection behind the warm front will allow dewpoints to warm into the 60s, with the axis of highest moisture to be just to our west across far western KY, southern IL and the MO Bootheel, providing ample surface- based instability.

Aloft, a negatively tilted H5 trough axis will stretch from northern MN into western KY, placing the region in a favorable zone of upper- level divergence. We will also have a strong LLJ at 850mb providing ample shear of 40-45kts, supporting organized storm structures.

**SEVERE WEATHER CONFIDENCE**

Increasing Confidence: 00z runs of the deterministic models continue to show better alignment on the track, placement and timing of both the sfc low and mid-level jet streak.

There is strong statistical support as we see overlap between CIPS Analogs, CSU ML probabilities and NCAR AI NWP aligning with current SPC outlooks.

Where confidence remains low is how the deterministic models are handling the instability over the area on Monday. The GFS has trended more aggressive with 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE while the ECMWF is more conservative with 1000-1500 J/kg. The models also differ on arrival of convection with the GFS bringing the activity in during the peak of the instability the ECMWF is slower bringing it in after we reach peak instability.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE is still holding on the lower end of Medium. The setup remains favorable for severe weather over the region, especially as you go further west of the I-65 corridor into western KY. But we are still 5 days out and history tends to tell us that things can and will change over the next couple of days as we get more data and fine tune the details. THIS REMAINS AN AREA OF HIGH INTEREST and should be monitored closely over the next several days.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Slightly cooler and more seasonable temperatures are expected. There could be a few light rain chances through the middle of the week with another potential for heavier rainfall by the end of the week and a significant cool down for the first weekend of May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire TAF period. Light SW winds are still ongoing but will quickly increase after sunrise. With mixing from daytime heating, surface gusts will increase to 20- 25kts during the late morning through afternoon hours from the SW. High level clouds well above 25kft move in during the afternoon along with spotty FEW clouds at lower levels, though these will be brief and in passing. Overnight heading into Friday, wind gusts calm down with a continued SW flow at the surface. Near 09-13Z on Friday the 24th, weakening low-level wind shear causing will approach from the west. As it draws closer, it will weaken quickly, giving us low confidence in affecting anyone. This was excluded in the TAF but is being monitored. VFR continues into Friday.

LMK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.