Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

-Upper level ridging overhead will keep daily precipitation chances below normal through Saturday.

- Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 90s each afternoon through the weekend with heat indices in the 100 to 105 range.

- A weak frontal boundary will combine with deep tropical moisture to increase precipitation chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Upper level ridging remains centered across the northern gulf coast this morning while an expansive area of high pressure at the surface centered over the western Atlantic extends through the western and central gulf. As has been the case the last couple of mornings, light winds early will allow for patchy and shallow ground fog to develop between approximately 4-7 AM with any fog dissipating quickly after sunrise. The ridging aloft will keep precipitation chances minimal today although a couple of small showers and thunderstorms may still be able to get going this afternoon before dissipating around sunset this evening. Outside of storms, afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 90s with maximum heat indices in the 100-105 range. Little change in the synoptic pattern will keep conditions uniform Friday and Saturday.

The ridge begins to flatten out Sunday allowing more expansive convective development Sunday afternoon. In addition to the diurnally driven convection, the region will begin to come under the influence of an expansive and unseasonable upper trof digging southward through the central and eastern CONUS. This trof is expected to push a frontal boundary to the coast Sunday night into Monday before stalling. At the same time, a slug of moisture associated with an area of low pressure lifting northward up the eastern Mexico and Texas gulf coasts will become entrained in the quasistationary front which will push precipitable water values to near climatological records (2.25 inches). Precipitable water values this high are usually reserved for inside of tropical cyclones. While this will not be an organized tropical disturbance, the potentially high rainfall rates from the developing convection may pose a flash flood threat Monday and Tuesday.

The upper level trof will be shunted off to the east by the middle of next week by another upper level ridge building in from the west. Guidance keeps this ridge on the weaker side so some diurnally driven afternoon convection will likely still occur, but precipitation chances will trend downward through the second half of next week.

Jones

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A scattered to broken cloud deck around 3000ft will continue to stream across the region from the south through this evening, causing CIGs to waffle between MVFR and VFR throughout the afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail along with southerly winds near 10kts. Tonight, winds become light, allowing fog to again form at AEX. Not expecting fog elsewhere at this time, with otherwise mid to high clouds and quiet conditions expected.

MARINE

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will maintain consistent onshore winds between 10-15 knots and seas of 2- 3 feet through Saturday. A weak frontal boundary will stall near the coast Sunday through Tuesday providing a focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Away from thunderstorms, onshore winds between 10-15 knots and seas between 2-4 feet will prevail through the first half of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Upper level ridging overhead will keep precipitation chances low through Saturday with light southerly winds prevailing. The ridge will break down on Sunday as a weak frontal boundary moves into the region before stalling near the coast. This front isn't expected to produce a wind shift, but it will act as a focus to increase precipitation chances from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

LCH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.