Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper level ridging overhead will keep daily precipitation chances below normal through Saturday.

- Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 90s each afternoon through the weekend with heat indices in the 100 to 105 range.

- A weak frontal boundary will combine with deep tropical moisture to increase precipitation chances by Sunday into early next week. There is a heavy rainfall potential with the activity that develops during that time frame.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Visible satellite shows streaks of cu fields across the forecast area, however, radar remains quiet as water vapor still shows an upper level ridge and dry subsident air overhead. Southerly flow around a surface high off of the east coast of Florida is bringing in the low level Gulf moisture with with dew points in the mid 70s producing apparent temperatures near 100 to 105 degrees.

Guidance is consistent in keeping the upper level ridge hanging over the southern US into Saturday. Meanwhile, southerly flow around a surface high of the Southeast US coast will also continue. Therefore, not much change in the forecast each day. Isolated to widely scattered showers or storms are expected to form during the afternoon hours with daytime heating and the sea breeze. Activity that does form will decrease at sunset.

With the relative lack of convection and the southerly winds bringing in low level Gulf moisture, it will definitely feel like summer as the heat and mugginess will be increasing. Afternoon highs will be in the 90s with the max afternoon heat index between 100 and 105 degrees. At night, lows will be in the mid to upper 70s with relative humidity over 90%, so definitely "sticky."

On Sunday, rain chances will be increasing as the upper level ridge weakens and shifts out of the forecast area. This will allow less inhibition and a better chance of daytime heating and sea breeze showers and storms.

Early next week on Monday into Tuesday looks wet with a heavy rain signature indicated on the global guidance.

Northern stream short wave will dig down to the south bringing a weakness overhead and push a weak surface frontal boundary into the region that will slowly move toward the coast through Tuesday.

The combination of south-southeast at the low levels with trajectories bringing in rich moisture from the northwest Caribbean and the southwest Gulf, along with southwest flow aloft connecting with East Pac deep moisture, will bring about a highly anomalous and tropical like air mass over the region. Model consistency shows PWAT by late Sunday continuing into Tuesday between 2.25 and 2.5 inches which is well over the 90th percentile and around both average max moving and daily max values. Good precipitation efficiency is noted with 100H-50H mean layer relative humidity over 90 percent. Also large warm cloud layers up to 15k feet will allow for efficient warm precip processes. This all leads to a tropical like air mass that will bring convection with high rain rates.

Meanwhile, mid level winds become parallel to the 85H-70H theta-e ridge to go along with storm motions projected at 10 knots or less. Therefore, potential for training and slow moving storms may bring about high rain rates over locations for a prolonged period of time. WPC and forecasted rainfall 3 day totals from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday range between 3 and 5 inches, while the 90th percentile from the NBM or the reasonably highest amounts paint the forecast with between 6 to 10 inch 3 day rain totals. Therefore, the flood risk potential seems to be increasing beginning with a Marginal (1 out of 3) Risk or between 5 and 14 percent chance of excessive rainfall that may lead to flooding for Sunday, with a Slight (2 out of 4) Risk or between a 15 and 39 percent chance for Monday, with the potential probably lingering into Tuesday. Stay tuned.

There are some inconsistency when it comes toward the end of the period with some guidance pushing the boundary and deep moisture away on Wednesday, while others keep the boundary stalled over the area. For now NBM/WPC pops will be in the forecast for Wednesday.

07/Rua

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening. A few, very small showers are denoted on radar this evening, but should be dissipating by 02Z. Clear skies and light winds will prevail overnight. Guidance is indicating the potential for some light ground fog development between 09-13Z. This is most likely at AEX and lower visibilities were included there. Will continue to assess fog potential at LCH, BPT, LFT and ARA, but the persistence forecast and NBM probs don't favor much. Scattered fair weather cu will develop once again by late Friday morning and continue through the afternoon along with light southerly winds.

Jones

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A surface high off the southeast US coast will be generally ridging across the northern Gulf into the coastal waters through the weekend into early next week providing light to modest southeast winds. Low to modest seas will accompany the southerly wind field. An upper level ridge will keep shower activity limited at best into the first half of the weekend. Rain chances will increase late in the weekend into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Light to modest southerly flow will keep low level moisture in place through the weekend with minimum afternoon relative humidity values between 50 and 60 percent. Afternoon heat index will on the muggy side with readings between 100 and 105 degrees. Despite the moisture, an upper level ridge will keep rain chances limited through Saturday. Rain chances will increase early next week, with potential for some heavy rainfall, as an upper level trough moves into the area meeting up with deep Gulf moisture.

LCH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.