Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend continues through Friday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect some locations today, mainly northeast of a line from Stanton to Pikeville.

- More widespread shower and storm chances enter the forecast on Friday night into Saturday and then again early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday evening) Issued at 822 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026

A cold front is near the northern borders of IN and OH early this morning. Moisture advection in the flow south of the front is resulting in showers/thunderstorms, with the southern edge near I-64 in the JKL forecast area. The existing area of showers and thunderstorms will continue moving east southeast today and affect the far northeast part of the forecast area. Once these depart, benign weather will carry through the rest of the short term period. The front will lose momentum and stall today well before it gets here, as ridging aloft builds in from the west. The morning convection is elevated in nature, and no change in surface air mass will occur. Afternoon relative humidity is still expected to be quite low for most places today and on Thursday.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 822 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026

A series of shortwave troughs coming out of a degrading western CONUS longwave trough will eat away at an upper ridge over our area at the start of the period. Low level moisture should also finally creep higher as surface ridging/high pressure over the southeast CONUS weakens and shifts offshore. The combination of waves aloft, lowering geopotential heights, and increasing low level moisture should finally allow for rainfall for most of the area, with the most likely time being Friday night into Saturday, and again Monday night into Tuesday. A definitive cold front should accompany the rainfall early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period south of I-64. Near and north of I-64, numerous showers and a few thunderstorm were occurring, probably bringing localized IFR conditions. The area of showers/thunderstorms will progress east southeast during the day, continuing to bring localized sub-VFR conditions. The precipitation will exit into WV this afternoon. That will leave VFR conditions area wide through tonight.

Substantial Low level just off the surface may result in low level wind shear this morning for roughly the northern 2/3 of the forecast area until heating/mixing occurs. After that point, surface gusts of 15 to 20 kts can be expected most places through the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.