Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Red Flag Warning Today for Inland Northeast FL. Combination of low humidity and elevated winds will create critical fire conditions. Practice Wildfire Prevention and Avoid Activities with open flames or sparks. Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues

- High Risk of Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches Today

- Isolated Tstorms Possible Sunday Afternoon & Evening

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

- Dangerous Wildfire Weather Conditions through this evening across Inland Northeast FL - Critically low humidity over Southeast GA

Dry weather conditions will continue through today and tonight as high pressure over the region slowly moves eastward. Red Flag Warning remains in effect for inland northeast Florida through tonight as breezy winds coupled with low daytime humidity levels and ongoing drought conditions result in an increased likelihood for the spread of wildfires, with several fires ongoing through the forecast area. Spreading smoke associated with fires is expected to turn inland, away from coastal counties, as the sea breeze moves onshore through the afternoon. Winds will become mild and variable in the evening and overnight hours. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the lower to mid 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 40s and lower 50s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 50s for areas nearer to the shore.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry weather and moderating temperatures will continue elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday

- Dense smoke can be expected near wildfire locations during the overnight and early morning hours

High pressure remains over the area, with dry conditions continuing during the forecast period along with moderating temperatures to above normal levels. Onshore flow will continue from the southeast, which will lead to breezy conditions along the coast, while winds over inland locations will be lighter than the past couple of days, with the exception during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze moves. The continued onshore flow will bring some increase in low-level moisture, but no rainfall is expected this period. Near calm winds during the overnight and early morning hours will help organize dense smoke near wildfire locations and Dense Smoke Advisories may be required. Some patchy fog can be expected as well, but the atmosphere remains fairly dry and dense smoke will be the main hazard this period.

A warming trend will begin to develop with the high pressure overhead. With the onshore flow, daytime highs along the coast expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Away from the coast daytime highs will be in the lower/mid 80s Wednesday, but will see warmer temperatures on Thursday as highs range in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight Lows will be in the 50s, with coastal locations in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Dry and warm conditions persist on Friday -Showers and isolated storms possible this weekend/early next week -Above normal temperatures continue through the period -Elevated wildfire risk continues due to isolated storm activity

High pressure continues to shift offshore through the end of the week into the weekend. Dry and warm conditions continue on Friday, but an approaching front remaining north of the area this weekend and again early next week may bring enough moisture into the area to bring some showers and isolated storms. Best rainfall chances will be across SE GA, where scattered showers and storms are expected, but enough moisture will be available for isolated showers and storms, especially along the sea breeze fronts as they move inland each afternoon and evening. These isolated storms and potential lightning strikes will continue the elevated wildfire risk as new starts could be the result of these thunderstorms, especially since widespread rainfall is not expected and overall amounts will generally be less than a tenth of an inch across NE FL and only in the 0.25-0.50" range across SE GA.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the period as the frontal boundaries likely remain just north of the region and expect widespread highs in the 80s over inland areas, even some near 90F readings on Saturday and Tuesday. Slightly cooler temps around 80F will exist closer to the Atlantic Coast due to the sea breeze and potential for a surge of Northeast winds on Monday if the frontal boundary pushes further south than expected.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will be in place through the forecast period with the exception of sites downwind of burning wild fires, which can reduce visibilities to as low as 1 mile. Visibilities are lifting for SSI and Duval terminals as the Atlantic seabreeze presses inland and directs smoke towards the west. Breezy easterly winds around 10-12 knots gusting to around 18-20 knots. Winds will subside by around 00Z with cirrus clouds increasing aloft during the overnight hours. Depending on the state of wild fires overnight, smoke-based obscuration can reform over SSI and Jacksonville Metro sites near the end of the forecast period.

MARINE

Winds and waves subside gradually tonight with exercise caution over the offshore Florida waters through late morning as high pressure builds across the area waters today. Easterly winds Today will return Wednesday as high pressure remains over the waters with southerly winds overnight due to the land breeze. Winds will turn more southeasterly Thursday into Friday during the daytime's seabreeze circulation with southerly winds prevailing ahead of a cold front Saturday and southwesterly on Sunday as the front begins to stall just north of the waters. The front will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the waters this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

High risk of rip currents today with elevated onshore winds from the northeast and surf breakers up to 4-6 feet. A moderate to high risk is anticipated for Tuesday with easterly onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER

- RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

- CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND Much Of Inland Northeast Florida Through Midweek

- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Thursday

Dry and breezy conditions will again be present Today across inland northeast FL, bringing Red Flag conditions once again for these locations, with elevated fire concerns across southeast Georgia for the continued dry conditions.

The dry conditions will persist through the week as critical MinRH values over inland Southeast GA and portions of northeast FL each day this week. High pressure over the area will gradually move east of the area from Thursday into Friday. This will lead to the onshore flow to lessen midweek, but still allow for the daily inland push of the Atlantic seabreeze. Areas to widespread high daytime dispersions are expected daily into at least Thursday due to high mixing heights and moderate transport wind speeds. Limited rainfall chances are expected this weekend, along with isolated thunderstorm activity which could provide potential for lightning started wildfire activity.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: There will be potential for localized "superfog" and/or dense smoke near the vicinity of any ongoing wildfires.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958

April 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ023-024- 030-031-035-132-136-137-140-225-232-236-237-240-322-340- 422-425-522. High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.