Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather will continue through much of the upcoming week.

- Fire danger is increasing for Tuesday.

- Confidence is increasing for significant rainfall amounts late this week into the weekend that may potentially improve drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Through Thursday: Warm and dry conditions will be the general rule through mid week as upper level ridging brings subsident, anticyclonic flow. There will be an uptick in fire danger Tuesday due to a deep mixing layer that could support gusty winds during peak heating and critically low RH values. Continue to message this formally in the HWO graphics. We'll be monitoring for additional fire danger threats in the Wed-Thu time frame. /EC/86/

Temperatures will likely remain warm through the forecast period with our coolest weather likely tonight with lows around 50 F for most. As moisture slowly starts to increase through the forecast period we'll see those lows back in the 60s F by mid week and beyond. /86/

Friday into early next week:

Our hope for widespread Friday rains continues to diminish as it now looks like the better chances may hold off until Saturday. The overall forecast pattern remains similar to what was expected in previous forecast packages, however, as an upper low now moving slowly inland across the the western CONUS interacts and merges with a long wave polar trough moving across Canada and the northern US. This will result in a merged/phased trough that is slow to move eastward with lowered heights across the plains states. Our area will, as has been the case numerous times recently, be on the eastern fringe of trough influence. This could allow convective clusters to attempt to persist/develop eastward enough to yield local rain and thunderstorms as upper flow increases through the weekend, but that /could/ seems to be trending more toward a /probably won't/ at least for most of through the end of the work week.

Some model guidance suggests this pattern could linger for a few days which could result in 1-2 inches of rain on average for most areas. This would mostly be a beneficial rainfall were it to come to fruition but, as we've seen, when a drought pattern becomes entrenched (and as Friday seems to perhaps becoming a victim to..), a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted when model guidance begins to propose changes. The guidance that has attempted to do this over the past month or two have of course proven incorrect. /86/

Per recent SPC and NCAR/AI guidance, there has been a low end risk for severe weather indicated in our region during the Friday-Sunday time frame. It's worth mentioning that the SPC has elected in their most recent forecast to remove our area out of their convective outlook areas that was indicated previously for Friday, and that aligns well with current forecast ideas locally. With a couple of days of increased deep layer flow and somewhat lower heights this weekend into early next week, it still remains possible that some lower end risk for organized strong to severe storms at some point but current confidence regarding timing/placement details are still too shaky at this point to try and pin down a severe weather threat in our graphics and will continue to hold off on mentioning it.

/EC/86/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.