Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress continues into this weekend.

- "Limited Threat" for flash flooding early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Rest of this evening...

Mean ridge has weakened and shifted further south over the northwest Gulf, with deeper moisture profiles (GOES East total precipitable water near 1.6 to 2 inches). Warm, southerly return flow and dewpoints in the 70s has led to heat indices in the low triple digits. Inherited heat stress mention in HWO graphics and hazard headlines remain valid. A frontal zone in the north and southward sinking outflow/convergence has caused scattered coverage of rain and storms in the Highway 82 corridor, with some southeast into east MS along Highway 45 to Interstate 59 corridors. This coverage is a little more than anticipated, so earlier forecast update (blended in model consensus) tried to account for south and eastern trends. Rain and storm coverage should be mainly diurnal and wane quickly after sunset, likely over the next hour or so. Persistence will be the norm overnight (i.e. southerly return flow and elevated boundary layer moisture with clouds). Lows will be seasonably warm, some 6F to 12F above (75F to 78F). Fog is not expected to be a concern again. Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Tonight through next Thursday...High levels of heat and humidity will continue across the CWA into the weekend. Relief will be temporary and in the form of isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon hours. For the rest of this afternoon, an outflow boundary dropping south toward the Highway 82 corridor, will spark some convection across northern portions of the area through early this evening. Said convection will begin dissipating shortly after sunset. Although severe storms aren't forecast, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours will be possible with the more intense activity.

A "Heat Advisory" will remain in effect for a good portion of the CWA through Saturday, with afternoon heat index values peaking around 105 yet again. This advisory may be extended into Sunday. However, better rain chances in addition to more cloud cover, could halt the extension or result in some modification to the current layout of affected counties/parishes in the advised area.

Although the heat tapers off during the start of the work week, moisture will be at an abundance across the region. Moisture associated with a tropical wave meandering about the Yucatan and the western gulf, will overspread the Lower Mississippi River Valley next week, resulting in precipitable H2O values hovering between 2.25-2.5 inches. As a trough digs south and swings east across the nation's mid-section and into and through our region through Wednesday, a front will sink south into the forecast area. As it slows/stalls and eventually washes out Monday through Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday, multiple bouts of heavy rain is forecast to affect the forecast area.

Currently a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding is being advertised across the entire forecast area during this time. Copious amounts of deep moisture over the region looks to result in high rainfall rates in a short amount of time, along with the training of convection which could result in flash flooding. This is still a few days out. Therefore, please continue to monitor the latest forecast as adjustments to the threat area will likely be made. /19/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Isolated to scattered convection is impacting a few TAF sites (GLH, GWO, GTR and MEI). This will continue to be the case through the next hour (ending by 13/01-02Z Saturday). Light southerly winds will prevail through the TAF period, while calm and variable this evening. A few rain showers or storms cannot be ruled out Saturday in the Highway 82 to Highway 45 corridors (GTR and MEI), with introduction of low confidence and probabilities of convection (30 to 40 percent) after 13/21Z Saturday. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019-025-034-035- 040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ009-016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ075.