Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong storms late today and tonight with gusty winds mainly north of I-80 from 3p to 9p.

- Unseasonably mild today through Friday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

- More storms Friday and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A front extended across far southern Lower Michigan. Weak surface convergence was occurring just north of the Michigan border along the front. Storms will develop again this afternoon is this area. Surfaced based CAPEs may reach 1500 to 2500 J/Kg. The SPC has placed much of the forecast area in a marginal severe storm risk for wind gusts to 50 mph and hail up to 3/4 inch. In the interim, patchy fog was developing north of the Michigan border. After coordination with Grand Rapids, will continue to monitor and may issue a Special Weather Statement for the fog; however, a Dense Fog Advisory is not likely to be issued at this time.

Unseasonably mild weather will persist through Friday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Upstream teleconnections support an upper level ridge building north of the Ohio over the next few days. The latest GFS indicates heights will rise around 100 meters above normal over the eastern half of the CONUS. 850 mb temperature anomalies support these warm temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

In addition to the rain the rest of this week, additional rainfall is expected early next week. WPC has widespread rainfall amounts from around 0.75 to 1.00 inch Monday and Monday night. At the time of this writing, several rivers were in "action" and "flood" stage. Depending how much rain falls in the individual basins the rest of this week, river flooding may persist the rest of this week and on into much of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Weak frontal boundary remains draped across the area and will be the focus for additional showers/storms this afternoon and evening given marginal diurnal instability. Best chances still at KFWA but chances may need to be added for KSBN as well. Overall coverage will remain on the low side and therefore holding with PROB30. Otherwise some MVFR ceilings possible this morning at KSBN as boundary layer moisture starts to mix out.

IWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None.