Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated fire weather concerns continue for much of this week due to very dry conditions and severe to extreme drought.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Elevated fire weather concerns continue for much of this week due to very dry conditions and severe to extreme drought.

Severe drought (D2) continues across all of northeast SC and southeast NC, while extreme drought (D3) is trying to build in across parts of the Pee Dee region. See the U.S. Drought Monitor for more details (droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast).

Dry fuels are aplenty across the Carolinas (i.e., dry plants or other organic material). Relative humidity values won't have a problem dropping down towards 25-30% each afternoon, particularly in the more inland areas. Wednesday in particular could have the biggest fire weather concerns, on account of increased winds out of the southwest at around 15 mph, and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Burn bans remain in effect for the Carolinas until further notice. All outdoor burning of any kind is illegal, per state law.

A frontal system and a series of shortwaves bring the next rain chances into town by this weekend. Forecast guidance still looks messy in painting the picture, but even so, nothing looks like a washout. No significant drought relief to be found.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.. VFR. Winds remain capped at 10kt through the period. Winds veer tonight with a cold frontal passage. A weak gradient will keep winds light and variable at FLO and LBT Tuesday while a healthy seabreeze affects ILM, CRE, and MYR from midday on.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions should prevail through the end of the week.

MARINE

Through Tuesday... A cold front drops south into the area tonight with S to SW winds veering to N then NE by Tuesday morning gusting up to ~20 kt. 10-15 kt winds then for Tuesday with an aftn sea breeze as sfc high pressure builds directly over NC then offshore. Seas over coastal waters continue in the 2-4 ft range, up to 5 ft 20-60 NM offshore, largely consisting of 7-8 sec easterly swell and NE wind waves following the cold fropa tonight.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Start off with a gentle breeze out of the ESE that gradually veers to the southwest by Wednesday morning. Winds stay locked in out of the southwest through Saturday, if not occasionally veering to the WSW at times. Expect a moderate to fresh breeze to pick up Wednesday, as a subtle front moves through. This scales back towards a gentle to moderate breeze Thursday through Saturday. Seas remain nearly locked in on 1-3 ft across the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to 3-4 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.