Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered strong to perhaps severe storms are possible late tonight across mainly southern Kansas.

- Heavy rain late tonight through Saturday night may lead to flooding concerns, especially in southeast Kansas where antecedent conditions remain favorable for flooding/flash flooding.

- A better signal for strong/severe storms may arrive on Saturday afternoon and Saturday and evening.

- Cooler temperatures and dry weather to follow for Sunday and Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

After a tranquil weather day today we are expecting some storms to return to the forecast area late tonight. We continue to see mid/upper ridging confined to the southern CONUS with a persistent trough over southern Canada. The belt of stronger westerlies lies across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area while some enhanced westerly flow in the mid-levels extends southward into the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front drove the hot and humid air immediately south of the area but this airmass is poised to return tonight as sfc cyclogenesis over the High Plains helps tighten the pressure gradient allowing breezy southerly winds to return and advect the airmass northward rather quickly. The lower 70 dewpoints were confined to the Red River area this morning and are expected to return to southern Kansas by this evening. We continue to see support for some deep moist convection developing across the High Plains along a subtle warm frontal segment. This activity is expected to propagate eastward tonight aided by a nocturnal LLJ. Other elevated storms could develop along the nose of the LLJ through the late night and early morning hours. The high PWAT airmass is progged to return tonight as the LLJ helps transport moisture northward. Efficient rainfall with high rainfall rates is anticipated once again. This could reignite flooding across our southeast KS counties late tonight while lingering into the day on Saturday as another round of storms arrives later in the period. GEFS has shown a persistent signal for 2-3 inches of rainfall across parts of southeast KS through the period (late tonight through Sat night). The latest HREF neighborhood probabilities for exceeding 2 inches is 50-80% across parts of southeast Kansas and a Flood Watch will be issued for this area where confidence is highest. We may also see some strong/severe potential tonight/early Sat with steep mid-lvl lapse rates/lengthy 1-6km shear vectors and a plethora of elevated CAPE progged.

A southward sagging cold front is expected to arrive in our central KS counties on Saturday afternoon. This front will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms after 20-21Z when the cap weakens. There remains support for linear forcing along the front supporting clustering of storms with damaging winds and large hail possible given steep mid-lvl lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear around 40+ knots. A forward propagating convection system appears likely into the evening/overnight hours with the largest impacts anticipated in southeast KS. Low level flow may be veered across south central KS in the wake of morning convection but a dryline may sharpen across the Flint Hills where moderate to extreme buoyancy is progged. Confidence in the mesoscale details is sketchy due to impacts from morning convection which could linger over southeast KS lowering confidence in timing and how robust the afternoon/evening event will evolve.

Sun-Mon...a stable post-frontal regime will build over the area in the wake of the front on Sun-Mon with seasonably cool temperatures anticipated. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach 80 in most areas.

Another shortwave trough moving over the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes late in the day may bring a chance for showers/storms to the area (especially central KS) on Tuesday afternoon as the trailing frontal boundary provides a focus for afternoon initiation. Northwest mid/upper flow will provide robust deep layer shear, even in the absence of quality low level moisture for some organized deep moist convection. The nocturnal LLJ may allow for some of this activity to linger into the evening/overnight hours.

Northwest mid/upper flow is progged to prevail Wed-Fri with nothing really standing out in terms of precipitation at this time. Rising heights/increasing thickness will support rising temperatures, especially on Wed when we have a prefrontal trough and southwest winds allowing highs to soar into the upper 90s+. A frontal passage will usher in more seasonable values for Thu-Fri. The front could provide a focus for another rounds of storms, but confidence remains low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Aviation concerns will be storms over the next several hours and then again later this afternoon and evening.

Cluster of storms that developed over far southwest KS is approaching south central KS. In addition, a few storms have developed over southeast KS in response to increasing low level jet. Storms are expected to affect southern KS(KICT-KHUT-KCNU) this morning with a break expected for the late morning through much of the afternoon hours. Then a strong cold front is expected to surge across the forecast area, with storms likely developing along it. It will move through KRSL-KGBD-KSLN in the 22z-00z time frame and KICT-KHUT-KCNU in the 23-02z range. Severe storms will be likely with any of this activity, with KICT and especially KCNU having the best chance to experience severe storms.

ICT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ070>072-094>096- 098>100.