Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 907 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- An unsettled pattern arrives Friday, with shower and storm chances persisting through the beginning of next week.

- We are monitoring for the potential of severe weather this weekend; however, no severe weather is currently forecast.

- There is a low chance of severe weather next Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Most of the cloud cover from earlier is pushing east, with skies forecast to become mostly clear this morning. As surface high pressure reinforces its hold over the region today, mostly clear skies will prevail. It'll also be fairly warm, with highs expected to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s later this afternoon. Dew points are forecast to drop into the lower to mid 40s this afternoon as well, resulting in minimum relative humidity values in the mid to upper 20 percent range. While winds will be light throughout the day, fuels remain dry from the lack of rainfall. Ultimately, although Red Flag Warning criteria is not met (due to light winds), there is at least an elevated fire danger concern due to low RHs and dry fuels. Be cautious of any burning today!

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 907 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Through the end of the week a pattern shift will develop with impacts arriving on Friday. At the surface, we will be sandwiched between high pressure to our east and an approaching low pressure system to our west. This set up will maintain our deep southerly flow, gradually bringing moisture from the Gulf into the TN Valley. This will keeps highs in the 80s and bring dew points back into the 50s on Thursday and Friday.

Aloft, the building ridge will dampen allowing for a zonal pattern to develop by Friday. The zonal flow will easily allow the passage of several shortwaves through the TN Valley through the weekend. The first of these looks to arrive on Friday and will mark the transitions to a wet and stormy pattern. Models have been fairly consistent with increasing rain chances from NW to SE through the evening on Friday with high rain chances arriving overnight. Sufficient CAPE will be present to support general thunderstorms however the weak nature of the shortwave will leave us lacking necessary shear to support severe weather. Thus, storms from Friday evening into the overnight are largely expected to be elevated and remain subsevere. We will continue to monitor this timeframe should any of the ingredient for severe weather show significant change in the coming days.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 907 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

An active pattern will overtake the long term period with much needed rainfall expected throughout the Tennessee Valley. Through the weekend, an upper level low is forecast to stall in Central Canada, placing the TN Valley in mostly zonal flow with several shortwaves forecast to push into the area from the west. As a result, medium to high chances (60-80%) of showers/thunderstorms are forecast to impact the area Saturday before decreasing to low chances (30% or less) Sunday. While severe weather is not forecast with these thunderstorms, there is a low chance some could become strong on Saturday afternoon as ~500-900 J/kg of CAPE influences the area with minimal shear and weak lapse rates. However, at this time, it looks like the main threat will be heavier rainfall rates causing minimal ponding in areas of poor drainage. Another thing to note is that the heavier bands of rainfall have continued to trend earlier- reaching the area very late Friday night into Saturday morning followed by periods of dry weather through the day between showers.

The next feature of interest will be an upper level trough and subsequent sfc low forming in the southwest U.S. on Sunday before beginning to push eastward through the Ohio River Valley. As this occurs, the TN Valley will be in a potentially favorable area for a low chance of severe storms Monday into Tuesday- during which SPC has outlooked our entire forecast area in a low risk (15%) for severe weather. There continues to be uncertainty in official timing and threats due to this event being several days out and continued model disagreement on the depth of the trough/coverage of severe storms. However, we encourage everyone to remain updated on the latest forecast as we progress through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions with light winds will continue through the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.