Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

1. Heat Advisory in effect for the majority of the area from 11 AM Thursday until 11 PM Saturday.

2. Widespread Moderate Heat Risk, including triple-digit heat, in the lower elevations Thursday until next weekend. Pockets of Major and Extreme Heat Risk as well.

3. Hot and dry conditions will create increased fire risk in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties this weekend.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Today's highs were several degrees warmer compared to yesterday's. The warming trend continues until the weekend, courtesy of a building upper-level ridge that moves inland over the West Coast states. The chance for a triple digit reading is 70-80 percent in the San Joaquin Valley and near 100 percent in the Kern County desert on Thursday until Saturday. While the chances decrease for triple digits from Sunday until next Wednesday, we will likely observe little change in temperatures and the overall pattern. For now, the Heat Advisory will be in effect from Thursday afternoon until Saturday evening in most areas outside of the mountains. Dry conditions will prevail throughout the region, and low minimum relative humidity (8-18 percent) will accompany the hot temperatures across the lower elevations. Winds will generally be light, although breezy conditions will occur over the Sierra Nevada crest and exposed ridgetops each afternoon and evening.

Latest CPC outlooks show a 50-60 percent chance of continued above average temperatures for 6-10 days ahead, but near average temperatures for the 8-14 day period. Dry conditions will continue for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ300>321-332.