Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Increased Fire Danger across northeast GA through 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for all of western NC and northeast GA for Wednesday afternoon as well. Above normal temperatures return Wednesday and persist through the end of the week, along with critically low relative humidity each afternoon, keeping fire weather concerns around through Friday. Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly. No outdoor burning! 2. A cold front brings rain chances as well as a cooling trend this weekend but temperatures should remain above normal. Rain chances may linger into early next week but confidence is low with this being towards the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Increased Fire Danger across northeast GA through 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for all of western NC and northeast GA for Wednesday afternoon as well. Above normal temperatures return Wednesday and persist through the end of the week, along with critically low relative humidity each afternoon, keeping fire weather concerns around through Friday. Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly. No outdoor burning!

Dry weather will continue for the rest of the work week, with afternoon RH down into the critical territory each day through Friday. Although sfc high pressure moves down off the Southeast Coast and sets up a weak return flow of low level moisture, the temperatures also warm up to about ten degrees above normal and get a bit warmer each day. A cold front will make an attempt to move down from the north but won't make it as an upper ridge builds in from the west Wednesday night and Thursday. NBM dewpoints were undercut accordingly because of the known bias. Thus, afternoon RH still falls down to 25 percent or below across most of the fcst area Wed/Thu/Fri.

Wednesday looks like the most critical day because of better potential for gusty winds in the afternoon. The way the fcst is constructed, it doesn't appear that we will reach Red Flag criteria, because the best wind gust potential is across the ridgetops and peaks above 5k feet where the RH is the greatest. For now, after coordination with our neighbors and the land managers, we will handle this with another Increased Fire Danger Statement for northeast GA and our western NC zones for Wednesday afternoon/eve. Thursday and Friday will be considered as they come. The burn ban also remains in effect across SC.

Key message 2: A cold front brings rain chances as well as a cooling trend this weekend but temperatures should remain above normal. Rain chances may linger into early next week but confidence is low with this being towards the end of the forecast period.

A pattern change will finally develop toward the end of the week, with the upper flow becoming more zonal and active. The first wave to eject out of the west and flatten the eastern CONUS ridge will cross the area Saturday. This will bring a cold front thru the CWFA, which will bring our first rain chances in a while. As expected, models are trending a little lower on QPF, with the 00z LREF now only showing a 30% of half an inch of rainfall Sat-Sat night, and <20% elsewhere. PoPs have actually trended up, as confidence on at least some measurable rainfall across most of the area, mainly in the mountains. Temps will be slightly cooler behind the front starting Sunday, but still a few degrees above normal.

The latest guidance is coming into better agreement on another cold front crossing the Southeast and bringing rain chances to the CWFA again Tuesday. It may actually tap into some Gulf moisture and the 00z LREF has a 30% to 60% chance of half an inch of rainfall with this system (lowest east and highest in the Smokies). Given the ongoing drought and the numerical guidance tending to be too optimistic with rainfall when out on Day 7, confidence remains modest and the NBM's likely PoPs may be overdone.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: expect dry, VFR conditions to continue at all terminals thru the 00z taf period. Sct high clouds will become few overnight with mostly clear skies by tomorrow morning at most sites. S to SW winds will weaken tonight/overnight with some sites possibly going light and VRB at times. Outside of the mtns, winds pick up from the SW tomorrow morning, becoming more WSW with low-end gusts during the aftn/evening. At KAVL, winds are expected to go light and VRB overnight and then pick up from the NW by the early afternoon tomorrow. KAVL could see a few low- end gusts tomorrow, but they should be few and far between.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected to persist thru the work week as broad sfc high pressure lingers over the region. A frontal system is expected to bring showers and associated restrictions this weekend.

GSP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510. SC...None.