Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions contract some Thursday due to lighter winds, but hot, dry, windy conditions remain anchored in place into the weekend.

- Red Flag Warnings continue for southwest CO Thursday and Fire Weather Watches have been issued for Friday for much of the West Slope.

- Slightly cooler than normal temperatures today return to 5-10 degrees above normal Friday and beyond.

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms emerges Saturday and Sunday that heightens risk for new fire starts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The northern stream continues to dominate the weather pattern across NOAM with a trailing wave moving across the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains over through the next 24 hours. This wave is forcing a dry cold front southward which has arrived to far northeast Utah this evening. With moisture in the 10th percentile and only moderate lapse rates this front moves through uneventful overnight except for gusty winds marking the fropa. As usual post frontal winds will be the strongest over the southern valleys into the Gunnison Basin and this is where critical fire weather conditions persist tomorrow. The remainder of the area will get a short reprieve with these conditions more localized. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal across all but the far southern zones tomorrow. This changes on Friday as zonal flow increases and temperatures return to above normal across the board by 5 to 10 degrees. Zonal flow and warmer temperatures lead to deep mixing and a return of widespread windy conditions and likely another round of critical fire weather. The SubTropical High will be scooting eastward under the zonal flow on Saturday and this looks to force elevated moisture northward into the 4 Corners region and lead to at least isolated afternoon mountain convection. Not liking the early Sunday forecast of elevated moisture lingering and an increasing jet aloft as the pattern tightens aloft. We really don't need another round of nocturnal lightning and this will be something to monitor. Eyes turn to mountain showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Additional moisture advects northward on Sunday, bringing additional cloud cover and better chances for afternoon showers. Dry boundary layer conditions could make a tough time for measurable rain though. This will knock high temperatures down a few degrees on Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, high pressure builds back over the West, likely sending temperatures well above average heading towards the Solstice. This likely increases the chances we remain in a critical fire weather pattern heading into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 533 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions under clear skies through the TAF period. Some gusty northerly winds along and north of I-70 associated with a frontal boundary should abate over the next couple hours. Otherwise, light winds this morning will become west to northwest gusting 20 to 30 kts after 18Z, dropping off after about 03Z to light drainage winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Lighter winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday in most areas but post frontal winds and well mixed conditions across the southwest Colorado and Gunnison Basin will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions for another day. Localized areas are possible elsewhere. Stronger upper level winds settle back across Intermountain West and central Rockies on Friday, while temperatures surge 10 degrees over average. This again keeps widespread Fire Weather Watches in place for the region with some areas continuing this trend into Saturday as well. A hint of moisture working into our southern mountains on Saturday and northward Sunday could promote shower and thunderstorm development. The antecedent dry conditions could prove useful for new fire starts should any lightning occur this weekend. Shower and thunderstorms chances for the mountains continue Monday. Relative humidity could see some improvement and temperatures trend down some with cloud cover, but critical fire weather is likely to continue for many locales. High pressure returns Tuesday and beyond and looks to send hot and dry conditions back into the driver seat, likely producing more critical fire weather.

GJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ207-293-295. UT...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for UTZ487.