Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the southern and central mountains this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. - Wind gusts of 40-55 mph will be common across the area on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next storm system.

- Unsettled...cooler and wetter weather...will move in late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

QUIET WEATHER

Southerly flow is ushering in moisture that may support isolated showers over the San Juans this afternoon. Lingering mositure along the divide will then lead to another round of isolated to scattered convection Tuesday afternoon...the warmest day of the forecast. Most of these showers will only produce virga versus actual wetting rain. Elsewhere will experience dry conditions.

PATTERN SHIFT

A strong low pressure will track over the PacNW and Great Basin tomorrow and Wednesday. This causes a tight pressure gradient over our area so expect a rather windy day on Wednesday. Most valleys will get wind gusts around 40-55 mph in the afternoon. The cold front arrives to our NW CWA late in the day on Wednesday. The well mixed atmosphere ahead of this will lead to high based showers enhancing the wind threat and some higher gusts will be possible. The northern half of the CWA will get the bulk of this initial part of the system with snow across the high peaks of the northern mountains. At this time impacts will be limited to brief winter driving conditions over the passes.

The forecast gets more complicated beyond that as several pieces of energy associated with the main low pressure impact the area. So this will keep precipitation chances going through the weekend. During this time the mountains will be favored for periods of snow, which could impact travel. Snow levels range from about 6-8 kft and perhaps lower at night. The highest chances may be on Sunday as a low pressure off the coast of California gets absorbed into the trough causing it to track near our area. This would result in more widespread precipitation. Temperatures through this active period will be below normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 541 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Winds are calming across the region, and are generally expected to be light overnight. Some showers will linger near KTEX until around 01Z. Skies will become mostly clear tonight, but cloud cover will increase tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

On Wednesday afternoon many locations below 7,000 feet will experience RH below 15% with winds speeds above 25 mph. Fuels have been deemed not critical with the exception of northwest Colorado. The minimum RH is more like 15-20% in these areas, so the coverage was not sufficient to issue a Red Flag Warning at this time.

GJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-020>022. UT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ022-024- 027-029.