Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday may bring a few strong storms to the area. The severe threat, however, looks to remain limited through Saturday morning.

- A slight risk of severe weather covers only a few southeast portions of the area Saturday afternoon. This threat is highly conditional based on the timing of the front on Saturday.

- Highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday will slide down to the low to mid 70s by Sunday. Highs will later rebound back to the 90s to potentially the low 100s in a handful of places by midweek next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tonight and Friday...

Following a breezy and slightly cooler afternoon (mid 70s to low 80s), tonight is supposed to remain precip free. For the first time in what seems like several days (since Sunday), no storms or severe weather will threaten the area. Aloft, the upper-level trough that has been in the neighborhood across the last several days finally ejects east and away. This will turn the upper-level flow zonal, generally known to be a more quieter pattern. At the surface, higher pressure marching in behind last night's front has helped clear out most of the clouds for the day and also for Friday. Highs as response to the mostly clear skies will warm temperatures up a few degrees back to the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds out of the northwest and beginning to lighten this evening, will turn towards the south to southwest direction for Friday. Winds, though a little weaker from today, will still gust as high as 20-30MPH Friday afternoon.

Friday Night into Saturday...

A nearly horizontal (negatively) tilted trough attached to a low over Canada's Hudson Bay, will slip south to the north central Plains region Friday. This feature, marked by a southward dropping streamer of vorticity, will near Northmen Nebraska by Friday night. A cold front draped across underneath should be in play to innate a few storms across mainly the eastern half of the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning. At this point in time, the mention of severe weather remains somewhat limited for Friday night, although it would not be completely out of the question for a few pockets of hail or gusty thunderstorm winds to accompany a few of these storms. Conditionally, up to 2,000-3,500 j/kg of MUCAPE and around 35-50kts of bulk shear would generally be enough to support some strong storms, although there is some question on how well the moisture will rebound from today. The current forecast projects dewpoints to only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s at least initially, generally not all that supportive. A few of these overnight storms may linger into Saturday morning as the front passes through the area.

A slight risk of severe weather currently lays across a limited southeast portion of the area Saturday afternoon (southeast of a line from Hebron, NE to Osborne, KS). This severe threat will be highly conditional based on where the front makes it Saturday morning. Surging moisture from the southeast that day will meet the front, helping develop a few strong to severe thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Most of the activity, as of now, is expected to take place south and east of the area. If a storm does managed to clip our far southeast Nebraska or eastern Kansas areas, the main hazards will be for hail up to the size of quarter and gusty thunderstorms wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Otherwise, highs for Saturday will fall a few degrees shy of Friday (upper 70s to mid 80s). Surface winds will turn back northerly behind the passing front with sustained 15-20MPH winds gusting as high 25-35MPH Saturday afternoon.

Sunday and Beyond...

Broad troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will keep the flow aloft out of the northwest heading into next week. This pattern does not appear to be overly "wet" with only a handful of minor PoPs (10-20% chances) scattered hear and there through the forecast period (through next Thursday). There is not a particular day that stands out as being favorable for widespread thunderstorms or precipitation as of now. Temperature-wise, highs look to bottom out for the week Sunday (low to mid 70s) and gradually warming up back to the 90s to low 100s potentially by mid-week next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast period. Strong northwest winds will weaken throughout the evening, with wind gusts decaying around sunset. Light variable winds are expected overnight, as the surface flow generally rotates counterclockwise. Strong southerly winds will commence around sunrise, increasing in strength through the afternoon. Skies will be clear for most of the forecast period, with the potential for a few high clouds tomorrow afternoon.

GID WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.