Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue this week and into the weekend with highs in the 90s and peak heat indices in the 100-107 range.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely near the Red River late Thursday night into Friday morning.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (50-80% chance) look to return to the area Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Another hot, breezy, and muggy day is expected Thursday with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 90s and heat index values rising into the 98-106 degree range. Make sure that you are taking the proper steps to keep you and your loved ones safe from heat-related illnesses. Isolated seabreeze showers and storms may once again push northwestward into parts of the Brazos Valley late Thursday afternoon, but most locations will remain dry.

By late Thursday, mid/upper troughing will lead to surface pressure falls over the Central Plains. The surface low will shift northeast toward the Great Lakes Thursday night dragging a cold front south toward the Red River late Thursday night into Friday morning. This frontal boundary will likely stall near or just north of the Red River by 3-5AM Friday morning, but it will likely provide a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across our top two tiers of counties north of I-20 through midday Friday. The threat for severe weather or heavy rainfall remains on the lower end, but a few observations of gusty downburst winds cannot be ruled out. We will be monitoring for any additional thunderstorm development along remnant outflow boundaries Friday afternoon which may pose more of an isolated damaging wind threat (~20% chance). Otherwise, expect most locations south of I-20 to rise into the low to mid 90s Friday afternoon with several locations north of I-20 struggling to escape the upper 80s due to the passing outflow boundary and increased cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Rather benign, but hot, weather is expected Saturday as weak ridging redevelops over North and Central Texas. Expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s across much of the region with heat indices approaching 100-108 degrees late in the afternoon on Saturday. A Heat Advisory will likely be considered in future forecast updates for parts of our forecast area.

By Sunday, a troughing pattern will settle over the Plains with several embedded shortwaves shifting over North Texas setting the stage for a more active early week period. Another front is set to shift toward the Red River by midday Sunday which will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm development amidst a pool of 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE ahead of the boundary. The forward movement of this front has sped up some compared to previous forecasts and may dictate whether we see a more active Sunday afternoon/evening vs. a more active Sunday night with storms coming out of Oklahoma. Therefore, keep up to date with the forecast as we hash out these timing differences and get a better idea to when thunderstorms will occur Sunday. Nonetheless, the environment will support a severe wind threat, especially along and north of I-20 where slightly more favorable wind shear may support storm organization.

Monday's thunderstorm potential will be largely dependent on how the Sunday/Sunday night convection materializes. However, the greatest thunderstorm chances on Monday (60-80% chance) will likely occur across parts of Central Texas where lingering outflow boundaries would likely reside. We will carry low storm chances into Tuesday before drier air settles in and ends any additional chances of rain through the rest of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A BKN deck of MVFR cigs will remain over much of North and Central Texas through 14Z-15Z this morning before scattering and lifting to VFR status. South winds near 15 kts gusting to 25-30 kts at times will prevail throughout the day diminishing to 10-12 kts after sunset. Another round of MVFR cigs is expected after 09Z-10Z early Friday morning. Looking ahead, scattered showers and storms along and ahead of a cold front will push toward the Red River Valley region early Friday morning. Most of this activity will remain north of the Metroplex terminals through the morning hours, but we will need to monitor for any additional isolated thunderstorm development near remnant outflow boundaries in the afternoon (less than a 20% chance of terminal impacts).

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.