Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain along with isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across North and Central Texas. Severe weather is not expected. - A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve late this week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Cool and wet conditions continue across North and Central Texas as a disturbance moves overhead. This disturbance, clearly seen on satellite, is proving strong forcing for ascent atop an already moist environment. With precipitable water values in the 1.4" - 1.6" range, today's atmosphere is above the 90th percentile in regards to the total amount of available moisture.

As the shortwave progresses eastward through the rest of the afternoon, expect the widespread precipitation area to shift east as well. With no trailing cold front moving through the region, we'll keep moisture around through the night with a few lingering showers expected. Rain chances overnight will be the highest south of I-30 and east of I-35 given the higher moisture content.

There will be a potential for patchy fog west of I-35 and south of I-20 by Wednesday morning. Latest guidance suggest some of the fog may be dense, however, coverage will be fairly patchy. We'll continue to monitor this piece of the forecast through the rest of the day and tonight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

As we approach the weekend, we'll be entering a more active weather period with multiple days of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

In the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, we'll transition from weak ridging (ongoing) to zonal flow (Friday & Saturday) and finally to more of a troughing pattern. This transition will take shape while we remain in a moist and unstable atmosphere, leading to near daily storm chances for parts of the region.

Thursday will feature residual weak ridging as the shortwave leading to the precipitation today and tomorrow moves away. In the lower-levels, lee cyclogenesis over western Kansas will lead to a northward transport of Gulf moisture over much of North and Central Texas. This same feature will sharpen a dryline just to our west, however, thunderstorm development remains unlikely on Thursday. A layer of warm air aloft should inhibit strong updraft development.

As zonal flow develops Friday and Saturday, shortwaves will move in from the west. A dryline will continue to develop each afternoon across our western counties, providing localized forcing for ascent. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient instability and effective shear will be in place for the development of strong to severe storms ahead of the dryline. Mesoscale features will likely impact the location of the severe weather threat, however, Friday's potential storms are currently expected to be largely north and east of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

The trough to our west will continue to amplify on Sunday, with additional impulses making their way into our region. All of North and Central Texas will be under a threat for severe weather given continued high instability, strong deep layer shear and steep mid- level lapse rates. There are indications that a cold front may try to slide south into our region Monday or Tuesday, shifting our threat for severe weather to the east. These details do contain some uncertainty, therefore, expect further refinements to the forecast in the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

As the weather system responsible for today's precipitation moves overhead, the area of widespread precipitation will continue to shift to the east. Ongoing back building of precipitation will delay the drying onset until closer to 21z, at which point most of the precipitation will have moved east. A few lingering showers may impact the vicinity of the TAF sites through the night, however, direct impacts appear unlikely.

Ceilings will continue to be a concern through tonight as moisture continues to stream in from the south. A deck of low clouds will likely persist between 600-900 feet AGL through tomorrow morning before improvements to MVFR commence. Winds through the entire forecast cycle will remain out of the southeast around 10 kts.

A return to VFR is expected tomorrow afternoon as dry air moves in from the southwest. This improvement will likely be short-lived as another round of low ceilings arrives tomorrow night into early Thursday morning.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.