Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

Increasing moisture will lead to showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of today and into the weekend. Expect slightly cooler temperatures as a result of the cloud cover and precipitation. Warmer and drier weather then returns for next week.

DISCUSSION

A fairly significant moisture surge is underway across the southern Arizona deserts, with the boundary just hitting our southern CWA border this afternoon. Convection has already fired along the leading edge of mid-level moisture this afternoon and this trend will continue into the evening.

Overnight and Saturday, even higher moisture values move into the state, peaking Saturday afternoon. PW values are near historical maxima, however, this is typically a dry part of the year. PW values will be near early Monsoon levels, so the comparison to history is somewhat moot. Additionally, mid-level temperatures are fairly cool and will produce steep lapse rates. Sub-cloud conditions are fairly dry north of the Mogollon Rim, but saturated along and south of the rim.

By Saturday night and into Sunday, this moisture starts to sweep eastward as drier air move in from the west. This will start to decrease activity, slowly, from west to east, into Monday.

Over the weekend though, we expect active conditions, especially during the day Saturday. This will seem like an active Monsoon day. Expect dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, chances for hail, gusty winds and even some pockets of heavy rain.

Heading farther into next week, a sharpening ridge will bring heat and dry conditions back to the area. This may last throughout the entire week, but there are signs that the moisture could return. Stay tuned.

AVIATION...Saturday 13/06Z through Sunday 14/06Z

VFR conditions, brief MVFR with scattered showers and storms mainly in the afternoon and most likely for KFLG. Winds SW 5-10kts, gusts to 20kts daytime (stronger, erratic gusts near storms), light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 14/06Z through Tuesday 16/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions, but brief MVFR possible near heavier showers/storms Sunday afternoon. Highest chances once again over the higher terrain, isolated coverage expected on Monday. Winds S-SW 5-10kts, gusts to 20kts daytime (higher downburst gusts possible near storms). Light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-50% chance) are expected both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Isolated pockets of wetting rain are possible. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH 15-35% each day.

Monday through Wednesday...A 10-30% chance of showers or thunderstorms Monday afternoon, mainly along the Rim and White Mountains. Dry on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds turning W-NW 10-20 mph each day. Minimum RH 10-25% on Monday, then 7-15% on Tuesday and Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.