Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected for today with warmer weather arriving on Sunday. Cooler temperatures return around the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Brief ridging will return over the weekend with gradual warming expected each day. Winds will remain out of the northeast to east through this morning before starting to shift to the southeast to south. Southerly winds will then continue through Sunday, becoming gusty in the afternoon. A couple of shortwaves will move through the mid-level flow, first one on Sunday and then a second one on Monday. Each wave will increase the mid-level moisture with Sunday seeing an increase in cloud cover but it is lacking lift for anything more than some isolated shower activity. As the moisture and lift increase on Monday, we should see more isolated to scattered showers develop through the afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain.

The midweek period looks like it will be overshadowed by a developing low over the eastern Pacific. Models remain split on the exact trajectory of this low but what does look likely is that temperatures will start to cool and winds will increase and become gusty out of the southwest. Chances for precipitation look to be fairly limited as the center of the low is slated to track to the north of the region. The flow then turns zonal for the end of the week.

AVIATION...Saturday 18/18Z through Sunday 19/18Z

VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds NE-E 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts daytime. Light and variable overnight most locations, KSEZ could see downslope winds out of the NE 15-25kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/18Z through Tuesday 21/18Z...VFR conditions, isolated -SHRA/-TSRA over highest terrains between 18Z-00Z each day. Daytime winds SE-S 10-15kts Sunday, S-SW 5-15kts Monday. Light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures for today with warming expected on Sunday. Northeast to east winds at 10 to 20 mph, becoming southerly at 10 to 20 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Mostly dry and warm conditions on Monday and Tuesday, turning cooler Wednesday. Isolated showers across the higher terrain on Monday. Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph on Monday, becoming southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph on Tuesday, then increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.