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000 FXUS65 KFGZ 112147 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 247 PM MST Thu Jun 11 2026

SYNOPSIS

Expect warm weather to finish off this week and into the weekend. Winds will be much more manageable, compared to the last several days. Some moisture will arrive over the weekend, with chances for showers and thunderstorms developing. Warm and dry weather then sets up again for most of next week.

DISCUSSION

500mb hghts rebound heading into the weekend. This allows gradients to relax, allowing for warmer temperatures and less wind, when compared to the last several days. This will also allow for some sub-tropical moisture, as well as a bit of early Monsoonal moisture, to creep into our state over the weekend. Expect chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, maybe into Monday.

At the start of next week, a trough moving through the northern Rockies will sweep any moisture away from Arizona and hghts rebuild rapidly through at least Thursday. This will bring in another warm and dry spell, before slight cooling and perhaps even enhanced southwesterly winds develop just outside of this forecast period.

AVIATION...Friday 12/00Z through Saturday 13/00Z

With the exception of MVFR conditions near isolated convection on Friday afternoon, VFR conditions are expected. Breezy southwesterly-to- westerly winds will decrease overnight, picking back up late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible in the Bradshaw Mountains and along the Mogollon Rim. Erratic gusty outflow winds will be possible around these storms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 14/00Z through Monday 15/00Z...Primarily VFR conditions. Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim on Sunday afternoon and evening. Erratic gusty outflow winds and MVFR conditions will be possible around these storms. Outside of any convective influence, winds will favor a southwesterly-to-westerly direction during the day with sustained speeds around 5 to 15 knots, with winds becoming light and variable after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Warm weather with increasing moisture. Friday will stay mostly dry, then isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-50% chance) on Saturday afternoon. Expect southwest to west winds 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH is 8- 15% on Friday, then 10-25% on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm with chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday afternoon. Mostly dry conditions return by Tuesday. Winds are southwest to west at 10-20 mph on Sunday, turning west to northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Look for minimum RH of 15-25% on Sunday, decreasing to 10-20% on Monday, then 8-15% on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.

PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...NWS Las Vegas Forecaster FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff