Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler over the next weak with periodic chances for showers.

UPDATE

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Fairly quiet currently with most of the rain showers north of the international border. Another shortwave rotating around the base of the upper low will bring some more clouds, some showers, and cooler temps for tomorrow. HREF has some fairly high probabilities of at least 0.01 inch across our far north, so bumped up POPs a bit from what base NBM gave us. Instability is minimal and only impacts would be some brief light rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..Synopsis

Upper low across central Canada will remain in place through at least the next week. Ensemble guidance in good agreement leading to higher confidence with the overall synoptic pattern. The main uncertainty will be the individual shortwaves rounding the main upper low that will lead to shower chances across our region. All in all anticipate period shower chances and cooler temperatures. Impacts should be minimal given lack of instability. There could be a few sneaky marginal severe days (especially for hail given the lower freezing levels) if evapotranspiration from crops provides additional boundary layer moisture.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions with northwest winds falling to 12 kts or lower. MVFR ceilings will begin to move in from north to south late tonight into tomorrow morning, staying mostly above 1500 ft. A few showers tomorrow, but at this point seems like it will be mostly north of our TAF sites so will leave any mention out for now. Winds will increase tomorrow out of the northwest with gusts up into the 25 to 30 kt range. Winds decrease again tomorrow evening, with most sites seeing some improvement to VFR.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.