Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will continue to build from Friday into the weekend with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s, potentially exceeding 105 in some areas by Saturday.

- A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in far north Georgia Friday afternoon and evening.

- A stormier weather pattern returns from late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Hot, humid conditions will remain prevalent on Friday as temperatures and heat index values will continue to creep upward. For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, only isolated showers and a couple thunderstorms are expected as overall coverage remains suppressed by ridging and a stout dry layer at 500 mb. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values from the upper 90s to low 100s can be expected through the next several hours. Temperatures will not cool off all that much tonight, largely ranging through the 70s, with Friday morning forecast lows at or within a degree of the daily warm minimum temperature record at the four main climate sites (Atlanta, Athens, Columbus, and Macon).

The pattern does begin to shift somewhat on Friday as a trough swinging through the Great Lakes sends a cold front southeastward. The bulk of the dynamics and support for strong/severe thunderstorms will remain farther north and northeast of Georgia. Still, plenty of afternoon/evening instability in north Georgia (forecast SBCAPE 2000- 3000+ J/kg will support the development and maintenance of scattered thunderstorms. CAMs support the development of convection across TN/AL during the afternoon with storms propagating into far north Georgia from late afternoon into Friday evening. Strong downburst wind gusts and perhaps a couple of instances of hail would be possible in these storms. In general, coverage should wane and eventually dissipate gradually after sunset as it pushes southeastward toward the I-85 corridor.

Outside of the threat for thunderstorms, temperatures will again notch higher on Friday. More widespread heat index values in the 100- 105 range are likely. A few spots will likely near the 105 threshold for Heat Advisory criteria in Middle Georgia, though the isolated, transient nature of 105 values will preclude any Heat Advisory issuance for Friday at this time.

LONG TERM

(Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Wetter Pattern Returns from Sunday into Next Week:

We will kick off the weekend with another hot and humid day on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s. The ridge of high pressure over the region will finally start to wane during the day, allowing for increased convective activity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening, with enough moisture and instability to support a few strong to severe storms. The primary threat would be damaging winds, in addition to frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy rains.

On Sunday, the ridge will break down further as a potent shortwave dives across the Midwest and sends a front into the Southeast. This will be the start of a period of wetter weather lasting through the middle next week, as longwave troughing establishes over most of the eastern US and flow over Georgia turns out of west to southwest. Moisture surging in off the Gulf will bring PWAT values up to around 2" by Monday, supporting numerous to widespread showers and storms through at least Tuesday. At the minimum, this amount of moisture in the atmosphere would create potential flash flood concerns with any afternoon convection. If stronger forcing came into play, which some guidance is showing with approaching fronts/shortwaves, that would only increase the flash flood risk. Severe weather may also become a risk, depending on the timing and location of any stronger forcing moving across the region. While it will remain quite humid, the amount of cloud cover will likely knock temperatures down a bit from what we see this week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Skies will clear over the next hour, with diurnal cu returning after 15Z tomorrow morning. A broken line of showers and storms will approach from the north after 22Z tomorrow, but is currently expected to remain north of KATL. Winds will slowly back to westerly tonight into tomorrow, remaining below 10kt. Winds will shift to 310 late tomorrow evening.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High confidence until 22Z, medium confidence in showers remaining north of KATL after 22Z.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.