Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions the rest of the week will lead to daily fire weather concerns.

- Temperatures gradually warm back into the mid-to-upper 80s through the end of the week.

- Rain and thunderstorms chances return over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Warm and Dry Weather Continues:

Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure over the Southeast will keep conditions warm and dry across the area through Wednesday. Temperatures in the 40s to low 50s this morning will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s by this afternoon across most of the area under sunny skies. The airmass will slightly warm going into tomorrow, with overnight lows only falling into the 50s, and highs returning to the mid 80s by Wednesday afternoon with only some high clouds overhead. Given the very dry vegetation from the ongoing drought, this will lead to fire weather concerns both days.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Surface high pressure and midlevel ridging initially maintain control at the start of the period Thursday into Friday, leading to continued warm and dry weather. As has been on constant repeat the last several weeks, fire danger concerns will continue to manifest each of these days. A welcome pattern change is on the way for the weekend, though, leading to the return for rain chances.

Chances for Rain Return

An initial cold front will begin to approach the region late Friday into Saturday, before stalling amid a transition to zonal flow at the midlevels. This will signal an increasingly active pattern as a series of shortwave disturbances transition eastward from the weekend into early next week. While widespread soaking rainfall is unlikely at this juncture from the weekend into early next week, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible amid an increasingly moist environment. Obviously, any rainfall will be welcome. As far as severe potential, initially the highest probabilities for severe look to remain west of Georgia through Monday, though trends thereafter will need to be monitored heading into next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions through the period with mostly SKC. Very light winds this morning turn out of the east around 5-7 knots by this afternoon, before going light and variable again this evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium in wind direction this afternoon and evening. High for all other elements.

Culver

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.