Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will continue to build from Friday into the weekend with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s, potentially exceeding 105 in some areas by Saturday.

- A stormier weather pattern returns from late weekend into early next week. Several inches of rainfall will be possible across much of north and central Georgia.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Surface and mid-level ridging is currently extending from the Deep South to as far northeast as New York, which is continuing to contribute to the steady warming trend across the region. Hot and humid conditions will persist through the short term period. In all but the far northern mountains, high temperatures today will climb into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will lead to heat index ("feels like" temperature) values in the upper 90s to near 100 in areas along and north of I-85 and between 100-104 degrees in areas to the south. For now, this remains below Heat Advisory criteria, though anyone planning to spend time or do anything strenuous outdoors should use caution, as this is the warmest we've been so far this year and it takes time to reacclimate to Georgia summer.

In the midst of hot and humid conditions, SBCAPE values have increased to between 2500-3500 J/kg. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop as a result, with the greatest coverage in east-central Georgia where atmospheric moisture and instability are greatest. Drier air aloft above the 700 mb level has helped limit the coverage of these diurnal storms and capped their vertical growth. Severe weather thus appears to be unlikely with these diurnal storms, though they could still be capable of producing frequent lightning and wind gusts up to 40 mph. Furthermore, with precipitable water values of nearly 2 inches, stronger storms that develop will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. The combination of heavy rainfall rates, weak steering flow, and slow storm motion could produce isolated flash flooding, most likely in urban or low-lying areas.

As this has been going on, the axis of a trough has swung through the lower Midwest, driving a cold front trough Tennessee and towards north Georgia. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front had entered the far northwest corner of Georgia at the time of this writing. As the trough axis quickly moves away to the east, the progression of the cold front will stall and forcing ahead of it will quickly weaken. Storms could nonetheless get an additional push southward from convective cold pooling, though the lack of upper level dynamics and shear often means that cold pools eventually outpace storms even in spite of strong instability. This likelihood will increase in the late afternoon and early evening as storms continue south, which adds up to higher PoPs across the far northern tier in the early/mid afternoon and progressively lower PoPs to the south in the late afternoon/early evening. With the aforementioned strong SBCAPE and DCAPE values between 750-1000 J/kg, an isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the leading edge of the cold pool, which will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and warranting a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across far north Georgia.

With the cold front stalling before reaching Georgia, another hot and humid day are forecast on Saturday, dewpoints rising a few degrees into the low to mid 70s areawide and high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s in north Georgia and mid to upper 90s in central Georgia. Heat indices are expected to be highest along and south of a line from Columbus to Athens, which could exceed Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. A potential point of uncertainty would be the coverage of convection and how quickly it develops. Increased coverage would serve to limit heat indices, and thus decisions on advisory will be made either this evening or overnight. Speaking of convection, that will be tricky on Saturday. In the absence of shear or organized forcing, initiation is expected to be diurnally-driven and then persist through the afternoon and early evening. It appears development and coverage will have some dependency on where residual outflows linger from today. Hi-res guidance continues to favor central Georgia for the best convective chances where mild moisture convergence is anticipated.

LONG TERM

(Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Extended forecast period kicks off with a transition to a wetter, more active weather pattern that holds through next week. The first features is a short wave impacting the area Sunday, returning categorical rain chances of 70-80% over north Georgia. At this time, severe risk is low, particularly as the forcing is offset to the north, but with PWATs near or above 2 inches, showers and thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producers.

On Monday, a frontal system will focus showers and thunderstorm development along its axis as it stalls over north/middle Georgia Monday and Tuesday. The enhanced moisture, combined with the anchoring front, will produce a heavy rainfall and flooding concern over the area. Rainfall amounts are highly dependent on where the boundary sets up and the level of storm training or redevelopment occurs over an area. WPC's guidance has backed off slightly on totals in the last 12-24 hours -- favoring amounts under 2 inches Monday through Thursday -- but the spread in the ensemble 25th and 75th percentiles of accumulated precipitation (1-1.5 inches) show that it's still possible to see meaningful QPF increases into next week.

Though shower and thunderstorm activity has the typical diurnal ebb and flow in coverage and intensity, in this wetter pattern, activity is unlikely to completely shut off in the overnight hours.

The trade off with the wet weather is the return to more moderate summer highs for Georgia. Sunday appears to be the last day for upper 80s and low 90s, with the rest of the week generally in the low to mid 80s. It's possible that Tuesday (the wettest day) could top out in the upper 70s in many north/west Georgia locations (6 to 10 degrees below climatology).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR through TAF period. Some high based cloud cover generally 250 kft or above will remain through overnight. Expecting cu field to build tomorrow in and around TAF sites around 040 to 050. Rain chances are decreasing per latest guidance, so have removed VCSH from all but MCN and CSG where chances remain. Still, small chance (< 15%) of seeing TSRA at metro TAF sites tomorrrow afternoon. Winds will be west side, generally 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High all elements.

Lusk

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-058>062-069>076-079>086-089>098-102>113.