Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms today and Friday, mainly over the coastal plains into the Interstate-35 corridor.

- Warm temperatures this week with afternoon maximum heat indices in the 100 to near 105 degree range.

- Rain chances, with some locally heavy rainfall, can be expected early next week as a cold front approaches from the north.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The forecast remains largely unchanged today and Friday. Low rain chances continue over the Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor today with mainly showers in the morning and some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon/early evening. Very similar conditions are expected for Friday, though rain chances do extend into more of South Central Texas this day. Any activity may produce some rain totals from 0.5-1 inches with any more robust thunderstorms capable of a quick 1-2 inches. Lows in the 70s with highs mainly in the 90s continue. Humid conditions persist pushing heat index values each day into the 100-105 degree range.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mid-level high pressure will be over the area Saturday. This will bring another day similar to that in the short term period of low chances for isolated showers and storms mainly along and east of I- 35. This changes as we move into Sunday as an unusually large trough over much of the US amplifies and eventually sends a front into the area Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances increase Sunday in conjunction with the weakening upper level high pressure and an uptick in moisture evident by the return of PWATs over 2 inches for most of South Central Texas. These high precipitable water values stick around into early next week and with the approaching front, the highest rain chances of the week are seen Monday and Tuesday. The potential for locally heavy rainfall will need to be monitored during this time given the moist environment. Decent rain chances linger into Wednesday, though some model disagreement starts to be seen past the initial front.

Widespread highs in the 90s continue Sunday and for the majority of the area Monday with continued triple digit heat indices up to around 105 degrees. With our front and rain chances next week, a drop in temperatures is expected by Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Some isolated showers continue from near and mainly east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon. Coverage is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, SCT-BKN VFR clouds will continue through early evening along with gusty southeast winds. MVFR clouds will return this evening and based on persistence and GFSLamp guidance, will move the onset up an hour for our I-35 sites. Some light showers are likely to develop during the pre- dawn hours across the I-35 corridor, but coverage should remain low enough to not mention in the forecast at this time. There is a chance for a little higher coverage of convection tomorrow afternoon near KSAT and KSSF, but this remains too far out to mention for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.