Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms today and Friday, mainly from the Hill Country eastward through the Interstate 35 corridor and into the coastal plains.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures and humid conditions will result in afternoon maximum heat indices in the 100 to near 105 degree range for most of the region.

- Rain chances trend upward early next week as a cold front moves into south central Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A few showers are noted mainly east of I-35 southward into the coastal plains region early this afternoon. We could see a few storms develop with continued daytime heating, but should see a decrease in activity shortly after sunset. Low rain chances will continue into Friday, with morning showers likely to expand westward and northward into the Hill Country. Hi-res models suggest a slightly better chance for showers tomorrow afternoon across portions of the coastal plains into portions of I-35 near and south of San Antonio.

Highs for today and tomorrow will be in the 90s for most locations along with afternoon heat index values of 100 to near 105 degrees along and east of I-35 and out west across most of the Rio Grande plains. Lows will be in the 70s given mostly cloudy to overcast skies and persistent southeasterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mid and upper level high pressure continues Saturday and based on persistence and some support from the hi-res models, we will see some isolated showers and a few thunderstorms mainly along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor on Saturday. High pressure aloft will slowly push southward on Sunday as the westerlies increase over much of the central portion of the lower 48 states. As high pressure weakens and moisture increases, rain chances will be on the increase late this weekend into early next week. Daytime highs in the 90s and humid conditions will continue to produce afternoon heat index values in the 100 to near 105 degree range into early next week for a good portion of the region.

Good agreement continues in the latest model guidance in showing a cold front pushing southward into south central Texas late Monday afternoon into the evening hours. With the front encountering the very moist conditions with precipitable water values near of above 2", rain chances continue to look favorable late Monday into Tuesday. With plenty of moisture and lift along and behind the front, some locally heavy rainfall concerns will need to be monitored both days. The increase in clouds and rain chances will begin to lower temperatures downward on Monday. A more noticeable drop is expected Tuesday with highs in the 80s. Some low rain chances linger late Tuesday into Wednesday, but with drier air moving in from the north, a steady drop in rain chances is in store for this period. South winds return to the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, resulting in a warming trend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Not much change from the previous TAF issuance VFR conditions dropping to MVFR later tonight. Did make a minor adjustment to the onset of MVFR conditions to start one hour prior to what the previous TAF issuance had. Until then will continue to monitor isolated shower development along the I-35 corridor until sunset with activity is anticipated to diminish. Still given the isolated nature of these showers will withhold mention in prevail conditions.

Overnight MVFR conditions improve back to VFR around 17z as low level mixing increases. Isolated showers will also be possible once again early Friday morning, but did not include mention in prevailing given the uncertainty of where they will develop, when they could impact the terminal, and the impact to flight categories.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.