Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Soggy weather likely to continue for the eastern two-thirds of the area again today.

- Cool weather continues with near normal temperatures Wednesday and a warming trend for late week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the area at this hour with activity expected to continue for a few more hours and perhaps decrease as the shortwave responsible pushes off to the north and east. We could see some more redevelopment in the overnight/early morning hours as half of the Hi-Res models suggest. However, they haven't exactly done the best job regarding yesterday's activity and even last night's so confidence in this scenario playing out is low. Most model guidance once again continues to suggest that activity picks up in intensity and areal coverage basically across the eastern two thirds of our area. This does make sense as very moist southerly transport remains across the area helping to set up a possible boundary similar to the one that occurred yesterday. This one however, would possibly be located further north and impacting areas along the I-35 Corridor and areas east across the Coastal Plains. The HREF PMM 24 hour QPF is still showing a wide swath of 2-3 inches in this area. Certainly something that bears watching especially if we have a similar setup like we had over Bexar, Comal, and parts of Guadalupe county yesterday. Expect rain cooled air and CAA once again to limit afternoon high temperatures with most barely hitting 70 degrees. Main exception would be for those under a developing shortwave ridge out west. As a result, areas across the Rio Grande plains and far southern counties can expect to see highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tonight we should see rain chances decrease somewhat before a second wave of energy moves back into the area helping to kick off more showers and isolated storms with our overrunning/isentropic lift type pattern still continuing into early Wednesday. We finally start to dry out by Wednesday afternoon with areas along and east of I-35 continuing to see the highest rain chances.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

All activity should finish by Wednesday night as most precipitation finally pushes off to the east and out of our area. Thursday and Friday should be a much drier days as southerly low level flow returns and with it the possibility for some isolated streamer showers over the Coastal plains on Friday. Temps should warm up nicely back into the mid 80s on Thursday and into the upper 80s by Friday. Our quieter and drier weather is short lived as a trough out west begins to deepen helping to bring us back into southwest flow. As a result, thunderstorms appear possible for both Saturday and Sunday given the setup in place.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

An area of showers and thunderstorms is moving away from the TAF sites and any left over light rain will end shortly. In the wake of these showers there are low ceilings. The low level atmosphere is now nearly saturated and fog has either developed or will shortly. The overnight period will have ceilings from MVFR to LIFR and reduced visibility to MVFR/IFR. Once things settle, there won't be much improvement through the day. There is also a chance for more rain to develop after sunrise and continue through the morning. Only DRT shows any hope of rebounding to VFR, and there it will be by early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.