Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

- Breezy southwest winds 20 to 30 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph. Patchy blowing dust along the International Border. A few light rain showers across Southwest New Mexico.

- Warmer weather will arrive later this week with fair skies and light winds. Lowland temperatures rising to the lower 90s by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Somewhat unsettled weather is forecast for Tuesday as the subtropical jet shifts over NM ahead of an upper trough. Mid-high level moisture reaches western NM in the early AM with isolated rain showers west of the Divide and over the high terrain. Dry conditions prevail for most of the lowlands on Tue under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances diminish during the afternoon as dry air aloft pokes in from the southwest.

Winds increase during the day as a lee-side low forms over E NM and induces a moderate pressure gradient across the CWA. Breezy to low- end windy conditions are forecast from the west Tue afternoon, generally 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Stronger winds are expected in the high terrain and east slopes, nearing Wind Advisory criteria. E slopes of the Sacs are most likely to see 50 mph gusts during the day as 700mb flow nears 50kts. Patchy BLDU and VIS to 5 miles or below can be seen later in the day, most likely for far west TX and El Paso as the Chihuahuan dust sources activate.

Winds settle on Wed, but still breezy as the upper trough hangs around to the northeast. An associated cold front pushes in for Thu, flipping winds to easterly with some gustiness for west slopes. Otherwise, no impacts are expected while a weak, dry upper low skirts across NW Mexico. Modest northwest flow aloft on the front side of an upper ridge will keep winds light and rain chances near zero into next weekend. Temperatures stay a few degrees below normal through midweek, then warming to above average for the weekend into next week. Lowland highs reach into the low 90s late in the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

VMC through forecast period under strong southwest flow aloft. Breezy winds this afternoon across S NM and W TX, generally 230-260 at 20G30KT. Peak gusts to 35 knots between 21-00Z, with visibility falling to 3-5 miles at KDMN/KELP due to BLDU. Did not include in mention of BLDU in current TAF cycle due to low confidence. Will amend when necessary. Skies generally FEW-SCT070 SCT-BKN250 today. Winds gradually decreasing tonight into Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Breezy conditions today leading to Elevated fire weather. Mostly cloudy skies, recent rains, and higher moisture will prevent the need for Red Flags today. Portions of Gila National Forest may also see spotty light rain today. Min RH 25-40% with WSW winds 20-30 mph and Excellent ventilation. Gusts up to 40 mph along over mountain ridges and east slopes. Smoke transport to the ENE.

Much drier on Wednesday, with RH falling to 15-25%. Winds will remain breezy 15-20 mph, but below critical thresholds. No significant winds expected late this week as conditions become warmer and drier. ERCs have decreased dramatically after recent rains, which will keep fire danger moderate into this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.