Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday evening and into the early overnight.

- Damaging winds remain the primary threat across the wider area. - A couple tornadoes possible with initial storms as well as embedded within lines of storms. - Large/severe hail most likely with initial storms

* Additional chances for showers and storms Saturday evening and again Sunday into Monday, including the potential for some to be strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Lots of moving parts as we gear up for another relatively active stretch of weather. The large scale mid-upper level pattern remains predominantly unchanged from previous forecasts, with long wave trough (and developing cutoff low), ridging over the central CONUS, and broad NW flow over the eastern CONUS. Currently at the surface, sizable surface high over the SE CONUS and developing/deepening Lee side surface low over eastern Montana have allowed prominent low- level moisture to surge up through much of the Plains and Missouri Valley. That moisture surge being the culprit for cloud cover and suppressed temperatures seen much of today.

As we work into Thursday, mid-upper pattern remains expected to evolve into a messy Omega Block pattern look as the western trough drifts eastward through the Intermountain West develops a cutoff low and a subsequent cutoff low develops in/around Nova Scotia. This will amplify existing ridging over the central CONUS, also allowing deeper moisture return and increased S/SW flow through the profile. Additionally, a shortwave/lobe of energy will be rounding the base of the larger western trough, inducing additional Lee Cyclogenesis over the southern Rockies. All of this will help tee up our next strong/severe storm opportunity Thursday evening/night. Synoptic and available hi-res guidance continue to point toward a fairly narrow area ahead of the surface boundary/dry line that will be favorable for strong to severe storms, including a relatively narrow area SB/ML CAPE values >2000-2500 J/kg, deep/0-6km shear 40-50kts, and good low level hodograph curvature among other things. Over the larger warm sector (much of the forecast area), ongoing moisture advection likely yields cloud cover much of the day but too may still output SB/MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg, more limited cap in areas, and at least semi-supportive wind profiles/hodographs for organization.

Some guidance has pointed toward possibility of a few isolated/discrete storms on the leading edge of the deeper moisture/WAA plume, though most keep bulk of convective initiation back west along the surface boundary/dry line. Should a few discrete storms go in the wider warm sector, most likely over northern Missouri, all modes would be possible, but remains a low probability scenario at this point in time. Of much greater certainty is convection along/preceding the surface boundary/dry line over SE Nebraska and central/eastern Kansas during the evening. With the above mentioned environment, all hazards too will be possible. Large hail and tornadoes would be most likely with any discrete initial convection, but likely is a short lived opportunity with rapid upscale/linear growth expected given near parallel mean-winds/deep shear profiles to the boundary. The more widespread threat likely becomes wind (bolstered by hi-res depictions including HRRR NN) as linear segments develop and propagate eastward. A QLCS tornadic threat may continue as well with noted 0-3km shear vectors that would orient well for northern portions of bowing segments. Conceptual model, bolstered by hi-res guidance, suggest general weakening as this activity translates eastward into/through Missouri. Timing wise, initial convection may go up over SE Nebraska/NE Kansas as early as around 21z and growing upscale from there. The NE to SW orientation places activity into NW Missouri not long after 21z, while KC Metro may be 02z Fri (9pm local) or later. SPC does have Sig 1 hatching for both tornadoes and hail, tied most closely initial and/or discrete convection. Eastward extent of this hatching may be a bit too far east, with current best threats for those looking to stay to the west of the KC Metro among other locations. Otherwise, the broader SPC Day 2 Slight and associated probabilities appear well placed.

Active pattern remains in place into and through the weekend as a compact shortwave is expected to move though the southern stream. As this shortwave trough approaches, storm chances may return as soon as Saturday, but appears more likely just S of the area. More substantial threat returns Sunday and Sunday night/overnight as the main shortwave and associated surface low moves into the Plains. Prevailing track around KS/OK border area, lifting additional moisture and warm sector through the area Sunday and likely yields some elevated non-severe showers/storms as the warm front lifts northward. Surface low approaches Sunday evening and overnight, including continued depictions of area of >1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and jet streak nosing in yielding >40-50kts. Timing is not traditional, but broad lift with shortwave trough and jet position are of note. Any convection in this environment may post a hail/wind threat primarily, especially if it can sustain into Monday daytime as the system continues to push E/NE. Of note too at this point, we may be in line for hydro issues with Thursday evening rains, Sunday rains with lifting warm front, and then additional as the mid-upper shortwave and surface low move across. In total, some depictions of >4-5 inches through this time frame. Keep an eye on Sunday/Sunday night as details continue to evolve and come into better focus.

Phew, by Monday large scale pattern becomes more zonal in nature with some variance in additional shower/storm/precipitation opportunities among deterministic guidance but honing in on next Wednesday. Temperatures largely on the seasonal to seasonally warm side of things throughout the forecast period as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MVFR conditions to initially prevail across the TAF sites. Current stratus deck continues to show signs of gradual erosion (edges) and lifting (more widespread), which appears on track to return sites to VFR conditions around 19-20z or so. KSTJ should be the first to return to VFR while the KC Metro sites will take a bit longer being more entrenched within current stratus. Remainder of daytime and into the early overnight will see more or less partly cloudy skies and wind gusts up to the 20-25 mph range. Stratus and MVFR ceilings return around or just a bit after 12z Thursday and through the remainder of the period. Winds also continue to gradually increase late in the period with S/SSW gusts up to 30 to 35 mph possible

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.