Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms possible tonight, mainly between 9 PM and 1 AM; damaging winds, large hail, and/or spin-up tornadoes possible.

- Not as warm and much less humid Friday through the weekend with additional showers and some thunderstorms possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

AVIATION

The upstream thunderstorm complex is the weather highlight for Lower Mi tonight. The storms are tied to WI surface low pressure and the southward trailing cold front that is pulled across Lower Mi as the low moves toward the Straits this evening. Light southerly wind ahead of the system maintains warm and humid air across the region to support thunderstorm coverage along the cold front, however intensity still carries some uncertainty, especially toward FNT and MBS. Flight conditions range widely as the line of storms moves through the SE Mi terminal corridor followed closely by the cold front, all of which exit eastward during the 06Z to 10Z time window tonight. Post front westerly wind carries in cooler and less humid air with intervals of broken MVFR ceiling through about mid Friday morning. Boundary layer growth then promotes cloud improvement into scattered/shallow cumulus, and also leads to wind gusts in the 20 kt range during the afternoon.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorm timing from 04Z to 06Z remains on track while still evaluating coverage and intensity trends. There is a chance for the strongest storms to graze southward while a more general storm pattern moves through the DTW area.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight and Friday morning.

* Moderate for thunderstorms from 04Z to 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

DISCUSSION...

An anomalously muggy airmass persists today with heat indices attempting to lift back into the 90s for parts of Metro Detroit south. Expired the heat advisory early as temperatures and dewpoints have risen slower than forecast. Heat indices are now only expected to peak in 90s through the rest of today. CAPE values are on the rise amidst low afternoon cloud fraction. This uptick in instability prepares the atmosphere for nocturnal convection. An evening squall line is emerging upstream, attendant to a dynamic cold front, which tracks eastward into the area after dark. 11.18Z KDTX RAOB shows a lot of dry air still around with CIN persisting around 580 mb and 825 mb preventing free convection.

CAMs offer slight differences in timing of the main convective line, once it moves into Southeast Michigan. 9 PM appears to be the earliest arrival time for western Midland or Lenawee Counties, before the line continues eastward across the rest of the region. SPC's SWODY1 continues to advertise Slight to Enhanced Risk for the forecast area, while model trends indicate increasing potential for a weaker progression as it moves through. The nocturnal timing doesn't help with a surface-based CAPE reduction, while the reservoir of higher instability still lies well-off to the west, over southwest Lower and northern Indiana. That is where the greatest instability gradient lies with potential for discrete cells before they eventually merge with the main line. A bow-echo should emerge with enhanced RIJ dynamics and very strong shear as the line reaches the local area presenting highest confidence in a severe wind threat. The greatest adjustment this forecast cycle is focused along the northern extent of the anticipated linear convection. Confidence is falling in sufficient instability for widespread severe hazards north of I-69, therefore the area of greatest concern lies between the Ohio border and M-59, especially for areas west of US-23. 30 knots of EBS and 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH favors rotating updrafts, and some hodographs indicate higher potential for QLCS tornadogenesis. Lower confidence in severe-level winds with increasing eastward extent across the CWA.

Governing/digging mid-level shortwave clears overhead by 09Z Friday, ushering the cold front out. Gradient/column flow veers zonally as 500 mb heights rebound with increasing stabilization. Surface high pressure builds southeastward, out of The Plains, and into the lower Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings indicate aggressive column drying during the morning hours with PWATs dropping from 1.75 inches to 0.50 inches between 00Z and 12Z Friday. No precipitation concerns the rest of the day with limited diurnal cumulus response. Lower column dynamics still support renewed breeziness with a dry 5 kft boundary layer, mixing down 20-25 knot flow.

The weekend forecast features a mix of warm and dry weather Saturday followed by another cold front with precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning. 850 mb temperatures climb into the teens (Celsius) Saturday, with highs in the mid-upper 80s and ample sunshine. Another wave then moves in late Saturday into Sunday with potential for some showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler air fills in behind the front marking a more tranquil period of weather from Sunday into early next week. Thermal troughing keeps highs below normal, in the low-mid 70s through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rainfall comes sometime Tuesday.

MARINE...

The next line of storms is expected to pass through the southern Great Lakes later this evening into tonight around 11pm to 3am just ahead of a cold front. The front will be tied to a low pressure system lifting from southern WI into eastern Ontario. Winds will increase from the southwest, turning more westerly, behind the front offering a period of gusts to near 30 knots for Saginaw Bay and the tip of the Thumb tonight into Friday morning so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. In the vicinity of the storms tonight, wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail would be the main threats with these storms. This front will pass through early Friday morning, but a second cold front will set up just west of the Great Lakes to start the weekend which will keep elevated southwesterly winds across the lakes through much of Saturday before the front then sweeps east by Sunday morning. Winds will stay elevated around 20 knots, but out of the northwest Sunday.

DTX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.