Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorms continue over the area this afternoon. Some storms may be severe in southwest Iowa, with all severe hazards possible. See update section for details on ongoing weather.

- Dry and warm conditions develop on Friday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday. A few strong to severe storms are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Storms from today move out late this afternoon and evening as the surface low lifts eastward out of the area. This will pull the cold front through the area putting an end to our severe thunderstorm chances. However, breezy north northwesterly winds are expected behind the surface boundary through at least the afternoon, although these diminish overnight.

Drier conditions develop Friday as surface high pressure spills into the central US. Highs are still expected to be warm in the low to mid 80s, but dewpoints in the 50s should give some reprieve to the humid conditions of recent days. Winds will be light to breezy out of the west, with the strongest gusts around 20 to 25 mph over northern Iowa. Clear skies will be the icing on the cake for what will be a nice break after a wet and active few days.

Unfortunately, this break is fairly short-lived. Another 500 mb trough will dig into the roughly zonal pattern aloft, bringing thunderstorm chances back to the state on Saturday. Higher dewpoints return overnight Friday into Saturday, with instability increasing into the morning hours. A subtle surface boundary will then drop through the state on Saturday morning, providing lift for a few storms in this destabilizing air mass. This front will continue southward through the day Saturday, with more robust thunderstorm development expected as temperatures warm and instability increases ahead of the boundary through the day. For Iowa, the severe risk for Iowa Saturday afternoon will be contingent on how quickly this front progresses, with some more recent guidance (namely the GFS) suggesting the boundary may be through the area by peak heating in the afternoon, while others (ECMWF and NAM) have storms developing during peak heating in southern Iowa. The GEFS-based machine learning guidance is also pushing the severe threat farther south of Iowa. Timing of the front and character of morning convection will be important, and will be interesting to see how high resolution guidance handles this in the coming days. Regardless, the environment ahead of the front on Saturday will be conducive for severe storms with 2000+ J/kg of surface based CAPE and 30 to 40 kts of deep layer shear. All hazards will be possible for any storms that develop mid-day through the afternoon Saturday, just will need to monitor if this threat will reside in Iowa or be shunted southward.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure fills in again behind the Saturday wave, resulting in mostly dry conditions through Sunday and into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will be milder through this period, with highs in the mid 70s on Sunday and upper 70s on Monday. As we get into the middle of next week, the pattern turns a bit more active again, but there's plenty of time to hash that out in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds gusting 20-25+ kts now will diminish quickly after sunset. Then by Friday the current northwest winds will shift to straight from the west.

DMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.