Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire danger for areas west of highway 83 on Wednesday

- Marginal risk of a dry line severe storm Wednesday afternoon and evening

- Better opportunities for rain this weekend and early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

05z upper air and surface analysis shows a surface low and lee side trough in eastern Colorado with a tighter pressure gradient that is keeping the south winds up at 15-25 mph through the late evening. A large ridge in the Rockies and central plains is keeping the weather pattern quiet while a slow moving trough is just off the Pacific coast.

Today the fire danger should be mitigated a bit as surface moisture from the south should lead dew points into the 40s and 50s through much of southwest Kansas. A dryline will enter into the far west during the afternoon however winds should stay around 10-20 mph which will keep the fire danger down as well. Fire danger returns on Wednesday as the approaching trough moves into the intermountain west and the lee side trough strengthens through the day. Winds should increase out of the south to 20-30 mph with gusts 40+mph at times. A dryline should reach to near the highway 83 corridor by late afternoon and areas west of the dryline will have the elevated to near critical fire danger as humidity values fall to 10-15%. Short term models are not keen on much if any storm development along the dryline in the afternoon and evening however if any storm can develop it will be high based so the rain amounts will be limited. Severe threat would be mainly hail and dry downburst winds but with low confidence in storm development the POPs will stay around 20% between the K-25 and US 283 corridors. Storm chances will sweep on east on Thursday as the upper level trough will bring in a cold front across western Kansas and scour out any lower level moisture we have.

Long range ensemble trends continue to show a more active weather pattern for the weekend and early next week with two longwave troughs moving through the northern and central plains. The first will be on Sunday and the second will be sometime in the middle of next week. This is pretty far out to have much confidence in where the best opportunities for rain will be but long range ensemble members are showing fairly good agreement in at least some moisture for much of western Kansas towards the weekend and early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds will stay breezy out of the south for much of the time period as well with sustained winds at 12-20 kts and occasional gusts of up to 25 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon mainly for areas along and west of highway 83. A dryline will move into western Kansas during the afternoon and humidity values will drop to 10-15%. Winds will be strong during the day out of the south 20-30 mph with gusts of 40+ mph at times.

DDC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.